The Ultimate Leverage Investment Thread

[CrushinFelt]

Heh, Yen up and Pound down. wuddya gonna do ;p

[Mook]

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which currency would you prefer? i can split it between a 2 or 3, but all shorting the dollar i think.

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When retail investors are inquiring about the best way to set up highly leveraged portfolios to take advantage of the falling dollar on Internet message boards, I'd submit it's a pretty clear signal to go long USD. (Nothing at all personal ... I've seen this question asked / topic explored in dozens of places in just the past few weeks.)

And I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a dramatic short-term upside move in USD/EUR and USD/GBP from these levels in the next couple of weeks ...

Mook

[CrushinFelt]

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[ QUOTE ]
which currency would you prefer? i can split it between a 2 or 3, but all shorting the dollar i think.

[/ QUOTE ]
When retail investors are inquiring about the best way to set up highly leveraged portfolios to take advantage of the falling dollar on Internet message boards, I'd submit it's a pretty clear signal to go long USD. (Nothing at all personal ... I've seen this question asked / topic explored in dozens of places in just the past few weeks.)

And I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a dramatic short-term upside move in USD/EUR and USD/GBP from these levels in the next couple of weeks ...

Mook

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I think it should be stunted enough though that John's stop losses shouldn't get hit (if in fact a spike comes for the dollar, which it already looks like it is today). We're close enough to the Fed's meeting that this portfolio's success over the next 30 days will probably be determined by Bernanke.

[john kane]

thanks for the replies. pretty painful day with gold's drop, but rather than selling i increased my position from $60 to $200 per $1 swing at 750p. my current stop loss in now 700p but is very flexible.

as for USD, what i am desperate to do is not to have to worry about short term swings affecting my position (i know gold today but i've was always been planning to put more on and the drop seemed like a good long term buying position).

my problem is that i want stop losses to be large enough that my position can handly short term swings, but not too large that i am tying up money unnecessarily.

also i dont want stop losses that are too far away that i'd abandon the position before the stop loss hits.

i had my best ever weekend poker wise (+$12k) so im on a bit of a finance high at the moment, up to $185k or so now (i had about 10% of that this time last year) so im now feeling like i want to get my finances decided.

i will always keep $100k in savings, which leaves the other $85k to invest with.

thanks for all your thoughts, much appreciated.

[CrushinFelt]

Errrr... how'd you earn 1000%? Primarily poker?

[The once and future king]

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Actually, I'm not sure the approach I'd use, but I'd short the Pound

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Cant think of anything more over valued than the pound.

[CrushinFelt]

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Actually, I'm not sure the approach I'd use, but I'd short the Pound

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Cant think of anything more over valued than the pound.

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An unexpected rate cut or two will take care of things over there (hurting the pound). Not sure how long it's going to be though. Yen/Pound or Yuan/Pound would probably be a good thing to trade.

[john kane]

crushin, yep all through poker.

rate cuts are very likely imo in the UK (where im from). poor people with mortgages need it, economy needs it, and inflation is bang on the target at the moment so seems likely next month or in 2 months time.

bearing that in mind, then ill go for yuan/pound as sticking with yen/dollar as well.

any thoughts on wheat?

[CrushinFelt]

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crushin, yep all through poker.

rate cuts are very likely imo in the UK (where im from). poor people with mortgages need it, economy needs it, and inflation is bang on the target at the moment so seems likely next month or in 2 months time.

bearing that in mind, then ill go for yuan/pound as sticking with yen/dollar as well.

any thoughts on wheat?

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heh, don't get me started on wheat; I help set the margins for that and deal with it on a daily basis. ;p

One thing I will say is that there are a lot of different way to trade it (ie rolling from one month to the other or just going long the back months or spreading crop years, etc.). So I'd take some time to really consider all the different ways of playing long or short wheat and the implications of each.

[john kane]

i really feel like a newbie (not surprising i guess given i am) when it comes to this. basically i think this time in 8-9 months or so wheat will be much higher than the 5% ill get from the bank, and given the risk it is worth it.

on my spreadbetting account i have the wheat london may 08 spread at 167.75 : 168.25

i was planning to do a bit of research, see what stop loss would give me roughly a 20% or less risk or ruin, and then leveraging my amount i was willing to bet.

what level would you recommend a stop loss? do you think it will go up?

part of me is tempted to start a new thread, but i think this is going well.

basically with the $85k i was thinking:
$10k gold
$3k oil
$3k wheat
$7k forex position A (yuan/pound)
$7k forex position B (yen/dollar)
$7k index position A (china)
$7k index position B (india)
$5k stock position A (northern rock)
$5k stock position B (?)
$5k stock position C (?)

so $16k in 3 commodities, $14k in 2 forex positions, $14k in 2 index positions, $15k in 3 stock positions. total of $59k in positions.

am i mad for doing this.

fwiw $100k would be in savings, the other $30k or so staking players, loans to friends+bankroll.

also to begin with i wouldn't put all this money down in my spreadbetting account simply becuase i dont have it right now.

i know people have lost vast sums trading, maybe this is stupid, but with a long term investing approach with conservative stop losses, it should work well.

as ever thanks for your thoughts, hugely appreciated.