He announces his hand - do you believe him?

[ras52]

If someone says they have a specific hand, how do you go about deciding whether or not they're telling the truth?

Last night in a loose, friendly club NLHE cash game with 50c/50c blinds, UTG says, "I want to raise, but I don't know how much. I have two black aces." Various suggestions are made from around the table, and he raises $10 (20xBB!). It seems an absurd move if does have aces (he's very unlikely to get any action) and it also seems absurd if he doesn't (risking $10 to win $1). The player in question is not clueless, so it's not a naive "Ooh, aces!!!" play and is clearly intended to befuddle. And it did.

Where do you begin? What are the factors to consider if you want to assign a probability to the truth of a statement like this?

[btmagnetw]

"black aces" wants me to lean towards the truth, unless he's leveling you guys and has 2 red aces and wants AcTc to push into him in which case he's a genius

[stigmata]

Doesn't a speech usually indicate strength? So I would tend to go with that.

[skelm]

It depends on the person really; personally I would look to see if he keeps on talking or if that's the end of the speech. Most people would keep trying to "sell" the hand to their prospective audience if they were lying but would have slowed their pace after the initial speech if they were telling the truth.

In this case because he continued to discuss the hand (asking others at the table how much they think he would bet) I would say his hand is strong (he's confidant) but not AcAs strong.

I'd be very interested to see how the hand plays out if he gets a caller - whether the speech continues on the flop or whether he gives up the pot completely.

[Crazy Porto]

[ QUOTE ]
"black aces" wants me to lean towards the truth, unless he's leveling you guys and has 2 red aces and wants AcTc to push into him in which case he's a genius

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, will remember this [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Mr Rat]

The other day a player announced his hand and showed it to be true...and then later announced about three more hands (with many hands in between) which all proved to be false at showdown.

But maybe that guy in your statement was announcing it to make people think he really does not have it (who would announce aces) so he could get more action than if he just raised without stating it (which people may have respected).

[Crazy Porto]

if someone before him raised he atleast has a reason to raise that much with nothing.

just smoothly (but very convincing/serieusly) say you have the A of clubs if he just shows a moment of shock/fear or is defensive about his hand (thinking it's a test) reraise ALLIN if he has kind of a smile over his face or he's just reading your face looking in you eyes FOLD

[ras52]

Only afterwards (and after my OP) did I realise that I should have announced that I had a black ace, as suggested. The idea that his play could be made with red aces was interesting (although I don't credit this particular player with such deviousness). Of course you'd be relying on a black ace being dealt to one of the other nine players (one of 2 cards in 18 from 50... is there a probability whizz in the house?) My guess would be that it's not +EV given that most of the rest of the time you're only picking up the blinds. It would certainly make good TV though.

[TommyTD]

I have found telling the truth with big pocket pairs tends to get you paid off more in live games. I would consider myself a TAP and for some reason I actually get more action with my Kings and Aces when I announce occassionaly.

[mce86]

Player dependent. Sometimes they tell the truth. I lie sometimes..I thought a guy had top two, and I had a straight. I went all in and told him to fold because I have two pair....he got this look when I said this...and he called with his top two. I flipped over the straight, and he was surprised and new he was talked into it. I reminded him that I told him to fold.
Rooting for a spade when you hold the nut flush is alos fin!