Good spot to bluff? (200NL 6max)

[I_Like_Beer]

Villain is your typical chasing fish. 40/15 stats and seems to chase most draws.

I don't put him on 76 or an already made hand, because I think he would have bet the turn.

The river doesn't complete the obvious draws (heart draw, or a Ten). My read is I think he has a Ten. Do I get a hand like JT or T9 to fold here if I bet the river?

Anyone like a turn bet? I don't think a player like this folds to a turn bet, thus my decision to check (I was planning to fold if he bet).


Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $457.85
SB: $198
BB: $296
UTG: $332.60
Hero (CO): $199

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, BTN calls $12

Turn: ($41) 5 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($41) K (2 Players)
Hero ????


Thanks

[spivey]

If calling stations didn't call too much, they wouldn't be calling stations.

Check/fold, although if he checks behind you've often got a winner.

[HeroInBlack]

He's not folding anything that is beating you on the turn or the river most likely with stats like that.

[JFsports]

I don't really see why you'd want to bluff here. I doubt he'd fold T9 and tbh I think this type of player calls wider than that.

[Hince]

I love how everyone looks at preflop stats and uses them to determine the river action.

Take a look at his river calling frequency. If is is low, bluff, if not check/fold.

[JFsports]

[ QUOTE ]
I love how everyone looks at preflop stats and uses them to determine the river action.

Take a look at his river calling frequency. If is is low, bluff, if not check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Imo, a player's tendencies tend not to vary by street. If a guy is a calling station preflop and on the flop, I think it's safe to assume he'll be a calling station on the later 2 streets.

People can only respond given the information provided too!

[XHitman014]

The very first line is "Villain is your typical chasing fish." Even without stats, do these guys like to fold?

If OP bluffs and the guy folds, OP probably had the best hand anyway. I'd rather c/c.

[tagWAG]

yes and its not close. bet pot on the river will easily get enough folds from JT/ T9/ T8 etc to be worth it.

if he calls with some random pair make a note and dont do it again.

even most chasing stations dont like calling decent sized bets on the river without TP coz it makes them look stupid if they lose.

[Symbolic]

I don't really like a river bet here. He'll call with any pair and you usually win against busted draws if you check it down anyway.
Also, this is an a terrible flop for cbetting and I would check-fold most of my range here. Although with AQ here, you do have a gutshot + overs so I guess a cbet isn't terrible.

[Burcak]

The people who are chasing draws are different from people who call big river bets, imo.

That being said, he could even have a set here. Unless you have a read where he raises with more than a pair, I think that's a great spot to check fold. Because I also think chasing fish don't really protect their hands.