National Championship

[Jazzy3113]

Here is what a recent article said concerning the Buckeyes:

• No. 1 Ohio State (7-0): Beating Washington and Purdue was nice, but the Buckeyes haven't exactly defeated a top-tier opponent. Also helping Ohio State's cause is that it competes in a weak Big Ten conference. Look for Tressel's squad to improve to 11-0 by beating Penn State on the road and Michigan State, Wisconsin and Illinois. A regular-season finale at Michigan could knock them out of the national title game. Ohio State owns three straight victories over the Wolverines

Is this right? In high school I would read sports articles and SI like a textbook, but now I am beginning to wonder wtf sports writers studied in college or if they can even do research properly.

Weak Big Ten conference? Visiting Happy Valley? At Michigan to end the Season? The Illini look good right? I was looking at the top 5 college teams and their remaining schedules and that OSU had one of the toughest. Am I crazy and just way off here? Does anyone agree with this guy that OSU has a free pass to an undefeated season

[Austiger]

It's sort of going around in circles every time this comes up but here goes...

Ohio State does not have an easy schedule. Hawaii has an easy schedule. But when you compare Ohio State's schedule to LSU's schedule, then it looks easy. I'd be more impressed with a 12-1 LSU than a 12-0 Ohio State, but the BCS would always favor Ohio State in that scenario.

[tjd2001]

I happen to agree with the article…or at the very least its consistency. If the big ten is as weak as he contends (which I happen to agree with to some extent) than OSU is looking at a fairly weak road (at least relative to other possible roads) to an undefeated season. Wisconsin stinks (can they cover a game?) Similarly, MSU is a game they should win. Illinois will be tough, as will Penn State on the road, but not games were you DON’T expect/require OSU to win. At Michigan is going to be very, very tough, OSU will still be favorites (I am really looking forward to this game) and the game is, once again, easily winnable. Honestly, I say there is about a 30% chance that the Buckeyes play in the national championship game (a lot greater chance than most teams can say).

[Jazzy3113]

I agree that LSU has the toughest remaining out of the top 5 (OSU, USF, BC, LSU, OU), but isn't OSU a close second?

Also, I do agree in that LSU will lose one more game. Also, BC and USF will lose at least once and OU will compete for the title. Agree?

[domer2]

I think USF has the best chance of all the undefeateds to remain that way. That would be insane if they were #1.

Even more funny would be the fact that they would be a huge underdog to a 1-loss LSU.

[MyTurn2Raise]

here's the thing, outside of the midwest the Big11Ten will always be called weak unless Ohio State and Michigan are absolutely killing teams. The perception is moronic. For instance, I heard so much about last year's big11ten being good because Wis, Mich, and tOSU were all top10 at one point. That's just garbage. The only reason those teams were top10 is because the conference really sucked last year, so those teams didn't have competitive games. This year's big11ten is far stronger than last year.
OK...Michigan is worse (defensively, but offense is still gangbusters)
Wisconsin is same
Penn St is better
Indiana is better
Purdue is better
Illinois is better
Iowa is the same
Northwestern is better
Michigan State is better
Minnesota is worse

The conference is much stronger than last year. The next level of this is that teams are not as likely to have a great record as the conference will cannabilize itself.

Even though OSU will be favored to win those games, they'll be an underdog to go undefeated. That's what happens when a team has to play competitive opponents week after week.

The final four game stretch is one of the most brutal 4 game stretches for any team this year.

Most sportswriters round up to 1 or down to 0 when it comes to probability. It's a terrible mistake.

I don't know how anyone can just put 'W's up for a team after watching NCAAF this year

[SunOfBeach]

[ QUOTE ]
Look for Tressel's squad to improve to 11-0 by beating Penn State on the road and Michigan State, Wisconsin and Illinois.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think if we take the expected MLs here and convert them to probabilities that tOSU wins, and then multiply all four of them together, we'll get something <<<<<< 0.5. I could be wrong here... but I 'think' that's what we'd find.

Caveat: I'm down ~9.5u in NCAAf this year, so take anything I say with a big bucket of salt.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
I think USF has the best chance of all the undefeateds to remain that way. That would be insane if they were #1.

Even more funny would be the fact that they would be a huge underdog to a 1-loss LSU.

[/ QUOTE ]

Texas was 8-pt dog to USC. Fla was 8.5 dog to Ohio. Who cares - I only care if the public moves the line too far.
I hope USF gets there and is an eleventy-billion pt dog so I can rack up the +++++EV bets again.

[tjd2001]

Sunofabeach, I complete agree.

Please feel to adjust moneyline accordingly (I put little thought into them, I just wanted a proxy and to be generous).

MSU (-900) ~ 90.00% - - 17 pt spread; don’t even see any moneylines out there
Penn St (-400) ~ 80.00% - -Penn is decent; at home helps; spread will be slightly more than a TD say -7.5
WISC (-750) ~ 88.00% -- give wisc a little more credit than MSU (Even though I think they stink)..i expect OSU to destroy them
Ill (-500) ~ 83.00% decent season, but in Ohio….i liken the odds to slightly worse than the Penn St. Game
Mich (-300) ~75.00% Always going to be a tough game in the big house; rivalry time….i don’t care how 'bad' michigan may be, cant see this game going off at anything worse than -300
EV of all OSU wins ~ 40%

[alwardc4]

Is S. Florida a good buy at 12:1?