Is betting the river here a spew or value ?

BubbleMint · #1 11-13-2007, 08:42 AM

Button is a total donkey, spewing like crazy. Likes to bluff raise in weird spots. Has been playing any two suited, often thinks one pair is good.

No reads on BB. Him lead 3 betting shows strength, but then the check on the river made me think maybe a counterfeited 87.
The table had been 3 betting and capping draws, so maybe he has lumped me in with the donks and fighting back light ?

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB 3-bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls, Button calls.

River: (17.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets

My intention is to b/f

One Outer · #2 11-13-2007, 09:06 AM

I think this is fine. My first instinct was to fold the turn but that would be Stupid. working on that.

Yepitis · #3 11-13-2007, 09:26 AM

I'm not sure why you would bet fold here, not much he would call with you beat.

Looks to me like he hit a straight on the turn and is worried a set made a boat on the river.

Maybe I give him to much credit.

He check called the flop and bet three bet the turn. He has to have something, 87 being near the bottom of may list because I would think he bet and raise on the flop with two pair.

Unless he was waiting until the turn to raise after the flush draw missed.

I think you check here and see what the button does, why is he still in this hand?

Anyway I won't bet fold when there are already 17BB in the pot. I think you would have to make a crying call to a raise here.

Yepitis · #4 11-13-2007, 09:36 AM

I normally read the hand a post what I would do as if I were playing the hand.

Now that I think about it a little more the button is on a flush draw and he may make a bluff at this big pot, in which case you can fold if the big blind raises.

James. · #5 11-13-2007, 10:08 AM

valuebetting this river is fine.

BubbleMint · #6 11-13-2007, 11:30 AM

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I think you check here and see what the button does, why is he still in this hand?

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Didnt have the benefit of Poker Tracker stats at the tme, but button was 94% VPIP.

I never saw him bet bluff, but saw him raise bluff many times.

jeffnc · #7 11-13-2007, 11:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I never saw him bet bluff, but saw him raise bluff many times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then obviously your intention of bet/folding is horrible.

Look, there's nothing wrong with betting rivers for value. Where you go wrong is coming up with crazy plays. Any play here that has you folding is the wrong play. Either don't fold, or pick a different line.

If you're inclined to fold if you bet, then don't bet. See a showdown and try to win the pot.

I'm not saying if you check and then there's a bet and a check/raise you should call. I'm saying betting with the intention of folding to a single raise is a really bad way to play the river.

Some of the posters on this forum get way too caught up on fancy play syndrome. This hand is not about the river. When thinking of value betting the rive, we're talking about small percentages of a single bet EV one way or the other. Why are we even talking about this when the pot is 17 BB? Any decision you make about value betting is completely dwarfed by the pot size. If you're unsure or concerned or worried about making a mistake if you bet and are raised, then don't bet - just check. It doesn't matter, it's a few pennies of EV one way or the other. Your question in this hand should not be "what is the EV of value betting the river?", your question should be "how can I avoid making an expensive mistake here?"

One Outer · #8 11-13-2007, 12:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I never saw him bet bluff, but saw him raise bluff many times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then obviously your intention of bet/folding is horrible.

Look, there's nothing wrong with betting rivers for value. Where you go wrong is coming up with crazy plays. Any play here that has you folding is the wrong play. Either don't fold, or pick a different line.

If you're inclined to fold if you bet, then don't bet. See a showdown and try to win the pot.

I'm not saying if you check and then there's a bet and a check/raise you should call. I'm saying betting with the intention of folding to a single raise is a really bad way to play the river.

Some of the posters on this forum get way too caught up on fancy play syndrome. This hand is not about the river. When thinking of value betting the rive, we're talking about small percentages of a single bet EV one way or the other. Why are we even talking about this when the pot is 17 BB? Any decision you make about value betting is completely dwarfed by the pot size. If you're unsure or concerned or worried about making a mistake if you bet and are raised, then don't bet - just check. It doesn't matter, it's a few pennies of EV one way or the other. Your question in this hand should not be "what is the EV of value betting the river?", your question should be "how can I avoid making an expensive mistake here?"

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a really great post.

mwette · #9 11-13-2007, 12:55 PM

Could he possibly be playing overs? Flop check to
assess the field; still having overs on the turn, so
bets; then check the river due to strength shown on
the turn.

BubbleMint · #10 11-13-2007, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I never saw him bet bluff, but saw him raise bluff many times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then obviously your intention of bet/folding is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, never made myself clear enough. I was never folding to the button.

It was the BB who had me worried, with his turn b/3b then river check.