*** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

[aufan91]

Denver -3
Giants -2

YTD: 27-16-2

[MacGuyV]

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CLE looks like a huge BSP pick, with CLE having a big win and Zona a big loss to SF. Plus CLE being a road fav, I really like Zona here.

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I've been a Cards backer all year & felt the same way about the Lions-Cardinals game.

I don't know about this one. Maybe it is a BSP pick, but even though they're better than SF it is a bad loss that I have trouble strictly chalking up to variance (they scored on a hail marry too?). Also, you have to consider the Browns road wins vs. the Rams & Ravens imo because those looked like quasi-bsp games I thought they'd lose too.

[kyro]

Tampa Bay ML (+150)
Risk 0.5u to win .75u

Tampa Bay +3 (+100)
Risk 2u to win 2u

Wait, when did we decide New Orleans was good? Am I really supposed to believe this would be a pick 'em on a neutral field? Yeah, ok, sure thing. There is more value in the ML than the spread, but I don't want to be betting too much on underdogs, hence only the 0.5u, although I'm seriously considering making it a full unit. TB should be favored here.

[closer]

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TB should be favored here.

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Garcia is injured and is not likely to play.

[kyro]

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TB should be favored here.

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Garcia is injured and is not likely to play.

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I knew he hurt his back but I thought it was something he was going to play through. If he doesn't play, that would explain the line and why I suck at this.

[Nonfiction]

Yeah I don't really like Tampa at all here. Their offense was simply atrocious without Garcia against the beat up Skins defense (which, true, is still much better than the Saints defense). They had ZERO first downs in the second half, and only won due to excellent play from the defense in forcing so many turnovers. However, I don't know if they can luckbox their way into a win again. That offense just could do absolutely nothing last week, and with seemingly most of the Saints games ending up in shootouts (due to good offense and awful defense) I'm not sure if Tampa can compete without solid QBing from Garcia.

Although the Saints have been incredibly hit or miss this year. I'm personally not touching this game.

[kyro]

2u on Oakland +3.5 (-110)

It's deja vu all over again. Three weeks ago, Oakland was a 3.5 home dog to Chicago. 80% of the public was on Chicago. It took a Brian Griese injury and the rebirth of Sexy Rexy for the Bears to make a comeback in the waning minutes. I loved that bet, and was crushed when it lost.

But I will have my revenge. Fast forward to this week. The Raiders are once again 3.5 point home dogs to a team that is not heads and tails better than them. 80% of the public is on Denver, and the Raiders match up magnificently on both sides of the ball. They'll be able to run run run against Denver's poor rush defense, and have a capable pass defense that will force Denver to use one of their backups. I think Oakland has a fighting chance to win this outright. 20-17 Raiders.

[AllinDan]

TAM has a 30% edge in DVOA this week; I like the ml with or without Garcia

[kyro]

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TAM has a 30% edge in DVOA this week; I like the ml with or without Garcia

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The problem is, as nonfiction pointed out, the dropoff from Garcia to Gradkowski is pretty large. It's about a 45% edge in DVOA. I don't yet know how that translates overall, but I do know that the Saints have a very good run defense and if Gradkowski is the QB, they won't be very successful just running the ball. To beat NO, you have to be able to throw the ball.