$114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.

[citanul]

wow, i don't really get those ranges at all. perhaps i suck.

preflop, i put the guy on like: any two face cards any pair 77+
flop, i think he bets all of those hands much of the time
turn i think many people check all of those hands all of the time. maybe they bet AA or something sometime. but i think that people who hit the K here checkraise too much, and people who didn't hit the K here check a lot too.
river, i narrow his range. i think he has some part of the board now. i think that he has a king, and it's weighted towards his worst kings because although many people check almost everything on the turn, kings bet most frequently. he could have a hand like JT too, but i think he probably bets less with JT if he bets, and if he has any other bluff type hand like AJ AQ he bluffs with less too.

i think that most people assume that pudge has some big cards or a pair preflop
on the flop they put him on any pair, or a small likelihood of a float
on the turn i think they assume he doesn't have a king in his hand

so on the river i think the guy is bluffing rarely, and thinks he has the best hand a lot. i think that almost no one folds a king here ever. i think that QQ JJ have a hard time folding to the action as played, as does TT.

my guess on this hand is that the guy had Kx or a wackilly played set (lol), pudge got ownd, and that he has moved to cashaments for like 24 hours, tops.

[suzzer99]

Cit, when a tag-ish regular makes it 4BB UTG at level 1, I put him on a much tighter range than that. 88+,AQ+, weighted to TT+/AK. Also for some reason they seem to make it 4BB with stuff like JJ-KK more than AQ or AK, or the lower PPs.

[Pudge714]

I like Suzzers preflop range. Maybe a little wider with stupid stuff thrown in occasionally.
I have a very narrow shoving range. I can def have 88/99 the only bluffs I guess I could have are TT/JJ, which are both very unlikely.
I think the turn check is much more likely OH NOEZ an overcard hit than I'm going to get creative and trap with AK.

[Crosby]

Good point, I for one realize this. I was hoping to point out that since I think he can have AK, this increases the # of hands he can have of the same medium strength. Since I think he can have a set, that adds more hands that aren't folding. As an aside I do think people are more likely to call AK than QQ even though it doesn't really make any sense. I wouldn't make the play expecting him to fold either of these hands.

[Crosby]

1) I think opponent, if he opens something like 88+AQs+ utg, has 88-QQ/AK or perhaps a bluff with exactly AQs if he cont. bet it. Everything else in his range is value betting, what he would fold is not completely clear, but I wouldn't bet on him folding much of it. Since OP mentioned that he is between tag and lag, I'm curious (and asked) if more hands like AJ, 66, JTs might be in his range. I normally rely on stats for information like this. If these hands are in his range, perhaps he is bluffing with some of them, and the river decision seems more interesting to me.

2) Assuming hero is standard, I would expect him to have exactly 88-QQ generally, basically never AK, occasionally 66-77, occasionally KK/AA. The less standard the opponent plays, the less I would rely upon his thought process and the more basic I would play.

Any pointers regarding my thought process would be appreciated.

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, i don't really get those ranges at all. perhaps i suck.

preflop, i put the guy on like: any two face cards any pair 77+
flop, i think he bets all of those hands much of the time
turn i think many people check all of those hands all of the time. maybe they bet AA or something sometime. but i think that people who hit the K here checkraise too much, and people who didn't hit the K here check a lot too.
river, i narrow his range. i think he has some part of the board now. i think that he has a king, and it's weighted towards his worst kings because although many people check almost everything on the turn, kings bet most frequently. he could have a hand like JT too, but i think he probably bets less with JT if he bets, and if he has any other bluff type hand like AJ AQ he bluffs with less too.

i think that most people assume that pudge has some big cards or a pair preflop
on the flop they put him on any pair, or a small likelihood of a float
on the turn i think they assume he doesn't have a king in his hand

so on the river i think the guy is bluffing rarely, and thinks he has the best hand a lot. i think that almost no one folds a king here ever. i think that QQ JJ have a hard time folding to the action as played, as does TT.

my guess on this hand is that the guy had Kx or a wackilly played set (lol), pudge got ownd, and that he has moved to cashaments for like 24 hours, tops.

[/ QUOTE ]

cit, i never played $109s really but most semi-bad players will dump QQ/JJ here b/c its not top pair anymore wouldnt they? Or do you think most players who will v-bet those hands will hand-read well-enough to call here?

[citanul]

futuredoc,

in general i believe in the rule that your opponent is only bad in the way he's bad. if he's bad in the way that he's going to rock up and fold QQ on the river, he's not betting it. i think that the people who decide to vbet the river here (and no one is bluffing the river here with QQ/JJ obviously) are bad in the way that they don't fold because they decided that their hand was good, and that's why they vbet it.

also, coach me at cash, mkay?

c

[Eagles]

If villain is decent he should realise that JJ=AA here. In both cases once pudge shoves the river both those hands prob aren't good. Just think for a minute about pudge's range once he gets to the river and how few bluffs there are in that range. Also people who dont think a set is possible for Pudge are way off. This board is so dry, checking a set on the turn is fine and def something that most ppl will do sometimes.

[citanul]

eagles,

i think that it's possible for pudge to have a set here, but that there's a lot of pairs he can have that aren't sets too. i don't think that most "decent" players fold anything that has a king in this hand, and while they're busy not folding king hands, i also think they basically never think pudge has king, and don't believe in sets once they put in 1/3 of their stack.

[eurythmech]

At first, this looked like a spew to me. Well not spew, but marginal either way.
After thinking more about it, I would assume Pudge's range on the river is something like 88-QQ almost all of the time.
Probably polarized towards TT/JJ, but still - villain calling with JJ/QQ does not sound as good as I first thought.