*** OFFICIAL 10/29/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (GB @ DEN)***

[tgblackw]

Am I the only one that likes the Broncos here? My reasons for liking them are as follows:
1) Denver is at home.
2) Denver is an AFC team (AFC>NFC)
3) Denver has one of the best Pass Defenses in the NFL vs a pass heavy Green Bay offense.
4) Green Bay is the worst rushing team in the NFL

That is just my 2 cents.

[prodonkey]

I like Denver here, they showed they can play last week.. and they are very solid vs the pass/weak vs run. If GB comes in and runs all over them they can win, but I just don't think their run game is developed enough to do it. Denver -3 big bet for me.

[Murphinator]

1u on GB ML at +150

[BRDSR]

I was very high on the GB ML before doing a little more research and watching the moneyline at my book drop to +140. Now I'm thinking maybe I bet the under at 43.5

If we just took the number of points each team scores and gives up and did a simple mathematical computation, we would expect 43.25 points in this game. However, I expect that when an offenses strengths match up against a defenses strengths (as with GBs monster passing game and Denver's great passing defense), the advantage tends a little bit toward the defense. Likewise, GB is better at defending the rush while Denver's strength is on the ground (although the disparity is to a much lesser extent).

Anyone else like the u43.5 bet here? I'll definitely be betting this game in some way because I've got a little itch tonight, but it'll probably be for less than a unit. Just dont' feel too strong anywhere right now.

Edit: Javon Walker is out for the Broncos and Henry is questionable, which leans to the under. However, I think the Broncos have a lot of similarly talented players on offense and this isn't as big a deal as it might look. On the other hand, Champ Bailey is also questionable (quad), and he's a big part of the Broncos' great pass defense. Anyone know more than the basic injury report?

[tgblackw]

I think that even with Champ Bailey out the Bronco Pass D can slow down the Packers Passing Game. Big Ben is a much more conservative QB that Farve and he still got picked 2 times last week by the Denver D(Champ Bailey sat out last week as well). Green Bay has the worst rushing offense in the NFl; Denver has the worst rushing defense. I think those cancel one another out. I really feel like Green Bay is going to have trouble moving the ball.

I am leaning towards Denver -3 and the under of 43.5

[mogwai316]

I think Denver's pass defense is overrated. Most people are looking at only one number - yardage allowed per game, and yes Denver is 1st in the league in that stat. However, they have had far fewer pass attempts against per game than any other team - only 23.0. Basically, because their run defense is so bad, teams haven't needed to pass much against them. Denver is 30th in QB rating against (99.2), and 31st in completion % against (67.4%). They have allowed 1.8 passing touchdowns per game and only made 1.0 interceptions per game. Going deeper than just the raw yardage shows that this is not really an elite pass defense. Favre will throw it ~40 times tonight and put up some numbers.

I'm on GB +145 for 1u, and leaning towards the over.

[BRDSR]

True, but opposing offenses only pass so little because they know they can run so effectively. The Packers can't run so effectively, so they're stuck passing a lot, which the Broncos know.

[mogwai316]

This article, from the guy at football outsiders, illustrates just how lucky Denver has been this year. They could easily be 0-6 and the line for this game would be completely different.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3080360

Not stated in the article, but along the same lines - Denver's pythagorean win % (using exponent of 2.37) is .262 so far this year.

[thelyingthief]

gee whiz golly. Aaron is throwing out stats like one of Disraeli's damn liars. there's far too few instances, and the variation too wide to draw any conclusion from them.

it may be true that denver sucks. but spouting THOSE stats is hardly substantial or substantive proof that they are.

tlt.

[hedgie43]

I wonder what tlt's percentages add up to for this game. I set the O/U at 140%.