Raised with fullhouse on river 25NL

[silver book]

I dont have the HH, but I will give you guys a quick summary. One limper preflop, I limp from sb with j9o, BB checks.

Flop : 9c9d3h.

I check and call a 50c bet on flop from BB, limper folds

Turn : 9c9d3h3s

I check and call a $1.00 bet (BB)

River : 9c9d3h3s3c

I lead river for $5.00 (overbet). Guys types in " Do you have fullhouse, lol".

He then raises all in for $15 ( 10 more to me ) Do you think I can fold this on the river?

[Frelo]

This could very well be an application of Zeebo's theorem.

Only hand that beats you is 3x though :/

[terp]

river call is standard, but it's your first four actions on which you should be seeking advice.

[CruS]

completing pf is fine imo

[Nick C]

If Villain had to have either a 3 or a 9, then the call would be unprofitable, since he'll have each with equal frequency according to the combos, and at this point you'd have to risk $10 simply to salvage your half of the pot up through the $5 you and Villain put in initially on the river, which is only about $7.

However, add in the times that he thinks the two of you are chopping the pot and he is raising for fun (or to get you to fold), and you have a call. I don't actually think he'll be raising for this reason all that often, but I think it'll be often enough. I mean, you will win the whole pot when that's what he's doing.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
completing pf is fine imo

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think so too. And I don't hate the flop check or anything, although I would generally bet.

Part of the reason I think the flop check is okay is that we'll often end up losing the hand if we're able to get our entire stack in, especially if we end up playing for stacks against the limper. (Also, there's a decent chance we'll be able to get our stack in anyway versus another 9x, despite our flop check.) And it's not too likely someone will play for stacks against us with much of anything else.

Still, I realize that whenever we do wake up, our hand in some ways is going to look a lot more like 9x than it would have if we had bet the flop. But it won't in the extremely unusual instance like in the posted hand where there's a house on the board by the river, and, more frequently, when the flop checks through and a Q or something falls on the turn.

[silver book]

No one has mentioned the " do you have a fullhouse" followed by a shove. Isn't this a huge tell?

[CruS]

Don't read too much into chat. I can definitely see him doing something like this w/ nothing, hoping he can represent a 9 and make you fold an XX.
I snapcall

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
No one has mentioned the " do you have a fullhouse" followed by a shove. Isn't this a huge tell?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sort of, but what does it mean? Is he saying "lol" because he thinks he has the same damn full house you have (the one on the board) or because he's scoffing at your river play at the pot (and loving it) because he's got the board beat?

I don't know. The text of his chat kind of suggests the former while his raise kind of suggests the latter (unless he's being cockily reckless).

[mmctrab]

Shut the chat off and then you don't have this problem.