Hoi Polloi's highly anticipated stat post

[silencio]

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That said my went to SD at 20/40 and 30/60 6m is between 40 and 42.

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The WTSD isn't important so much as the won showdown when saw flop (multiply WTSD x W$ASD) it should come out somewhere around at least .2 in the party games if you're tight. If you can faciliate it, you'd much rather be 33WTSD 60W$ASD than 40WTSD 50W$ASD.

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Bryce, Care to elaborate about the importance of WTSD x W$ASD for the statistically challenged ? For my last 80k hands I am .199

[elffaw]

There's 4 things that can happen when you see a flop. (Win,Lose) money x (Showdown,Noshowdown). WtSD and W$@SD don't tell the whole story - to find these 4 frequencies you need to use WtSD, W$SD and W$WSF

[context]

Would higher/lower values imply you were running good/bad (or just sucked)?

[danzasmack]

It can imply both things. A very high WTSD could mean that you are a donkey that calls down too much. But if your WTSD and W$SD both went up then you probably are running good.

[The Bryce]

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Would higher/lower values imply you were running good/bad (or just sucked)?

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It depends on a lot of things. Your showdown values don't just represent how much you like to call down, they also depend on how well you value bet, how often you pull good river bluffs, how often you force a showdown by semi-bluffing and betting the river, the games you're in, etc.

There's only a finite amount of total showdowns that you're going to be able to win out of any given sample, though. If you went to showdown 35% of the time and won, say 10,000 showdowns over a sample it would imply better hand reading (or simply more energy spent handreading, especially if you 2-3 table or something) than someone who won 10,000 showdowns over a sample of the same size in the same games, but when to showdown 42% of the time (ie Poetmagician). All other things equal, you'd make a lot more money too. Using a statistic like this to determine when you go to showdown at the table, though, wouldn't make any sense. When should you go to showdown? When it's profitable to go to showdown! (duh) Wether or not it's profitable for you to go to showdown in any given hand is completely independent of how often you go to showdown.

[Guy McSucker]

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Wether or not it's profitable for you to go to showdown in any given hand is completely independent of how often you go to showdown.


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I disagree. If you're a total showdown monkey and your opponent knows this, when he bets the river you should fold more than someone who is known to fold a lot on the river. If you see what I mean.

Guy.

[The Bryce]

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I disagree. If you're a total showdown monkey and your opponent knows this, when he bets the river you should fold more than someone who is known to fold a lot on the river. If you see what I mean.

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This is still talking about the immediate expectation on a call or fold.

[Hoi Polloi]

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By looking at those statistics I can tell you that:

1) You play poker
2) You are not retarded

I hope you have found this analysis insightful. Any advice that people try and give you based on a set of statistics like that should usually be ignored.

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1. Most sessions, at least.
2. I could be an idiot savant.
3. I only posted these becaue a number of posters who were quite indulgent regarding the retarded crap I was posting yesterday were interested in my stats and I thought posting them was the least I could do considering their restraint in not simply flaming the [censored] out of me.

That said, I don't personally find stat posts very useful. It's just not my orientation. I tend to ignore my own for the most part and focus on using PT to review hands I screwed up and evaluate the performance of specific hands in specific game types and from specific positions.

I do appreciate you succinct analysis. Thanks.

[Hoi Polloi]

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It's tough to say without playing with you what is correct because there are different successful styles. That said my went to SD at 20/40 and 30/60 6m is between 40 and 42. At lower games with more honest opponents I'm sure it would be a bit lower. If you want to post your party poker name (I assume that's your site) people could be helpful but I also would totally understand not wanting to do that.

-DeathDonkey

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Thanks for the offer, DD. But I think I will pass for now and besides I'm not currently playing on Party.

I do think I would SD more if I was playing more HU style tables. The 5/10 and to a lessor extent 10/20 are full of chronic cold-callers and pots are more often than not multiway to the turn and not infrequently at the river. In these games I find it profitable to tighten up, play fewer hands and win more pots which of course tend to be large. This pushes the WtSD number down.

[luckyharr]

Bryce:

Show me where I'm wrong here.

Player 1 goes to showdown 33% and wins 58%. Out of 100 hands where he sees the flop he wins about 19 showdowns.

Player 2 goes to showdown 40% and wins 50%. Out of 100 hands where he sees the flop he wins about 20 showdowns.

So player 2 goes to showdown 7 more times but wins one more pot. The average pot probably isn't 7 BB but player 2 isn't necessarily paying 1 BB for all those showdowns considering some rivers will go check-check when player 1 would have made a thin value bet. If the numbers closer to paying 5 BB to win that one extra pot, it looks a lot more like both players are winning the same. I do agree that player 1 is probably working harder at reading hands.