NFL Future bet situation

PropPlayer · #1 01-17-2007, 08:38 AM

I made some wagers very early this season (preseason through week2) on the Saints to win the Super Bowl and on the Saints to win the NFC.

At the time I believed the odds were good so I bought them with the intention of selling off them later when they gained some equity. After the Saints beat the Cowboys in Dallas I decided I would hang onto these bets. In fact the Saints were then 13 to 1 to win the NFC so I bet even more on them.

I’m in a spot now where my bankroll will increase 38% if the Saints win over Chicago and 83% if they win the Super Bowl.

I want to hold onto these bets but then part of me is questioning if doing so would be irresponsible.

I realizing hedging just to hedge is –EV, but what I’m wondering: in this case would not hedging be poor bankroll management.

I think It would be difficult at this point to convince myself to hedge these bets, but I’m just wonder what the take is of others on the subject, keeping in mind the percentage of possible bankroll increase and that my original purpose for making these bets at the time was to sell them later. Is deciding to hold the bets now poor bankroll management?

PropPlayer · #2 01-17-2007, 08:40 AM

I'm not sure it matter but I had the Saints at 38 to 1 to win the NFC then 13 to 1 for 4x that price.
The to win the Super Bowl bet was at 80 to 1.

Korch · #3 01-17-2007, 09:08 AM

is the futures bet with a reputable book? I'm in the same position as you with a bet on the Pats to win the superbowl (10to1), maybe we can pair off some risk if our teams win this weekend.

PropPlayer · #4 01-17-2007, 09:43 AM

My future bet is divided between Bodog, Mansion and Pinnacle. The bulk of the Super Bowl future is at Pinnacle.

If Pats vs Saints you will be in great shape as the Pats should be a decent sized favorite.

Korch · #5 01-17-2007, 09:48 AM

Too bad they're 3-2 dogs this weekend. I'm probably going to let some of the bet ride, but I'm going to hedge most of it. If I were you and this bet could significantly impact your bankroll, I'd lay some off on Tradesports. I don't believe you give up much edge when you trade on a market half a percent wide.