25NL- JJ Bluff, is this just burning money?

[ajml]

I probably should have just folded the flop or turn. However, his hand looks like an obvious KK or QQ. Does this bluff work at 25NL enough to be worthwhile?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, 4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $4.75</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($9.85, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($23.85, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in $7.05</font>...




Results:
Final pot: $37.95

[rapidacid]

After his flop call you're done with the hand.

[limit refugee]

Having to call $7 into a $31 pot is not scaring anybody who has made it that far.

[UncleSalty]

You're getting 3:1 on your river bluff which means he has to fold at least 25% of the time to make this profitable. You have an UTG PFR plus a reraise. He's leading the flop and calling your raise.

Add that all up and tell me he's folding 25% on that turn.

Actually at 25NL I think you should just fold this flop given the PF action. Aces are a huge part of his range and any non ace he's leading with is beating you right now.

[rapidacid]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually at 25NL I think you should just fold this flop given the PF action. Aces are a huge part of his range and any non ace he's leading with is beating you right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong and you're going to get run over thinking like this ... the flop raise is fine, but the turn action is abysmal

[ajml]

Thank you all, I should probably just stick to limit

[limit refugee]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you all, I should probably just stick to limit

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, easily correctable mistake in this hand.

Limit is a purgatory that's worse than hell. Read some NL essentials and enter the realm of fun and profit.

[eigenvalue]

His most likely reraising range preflop will be QQ+, AK. So fold to his flop bet.

[Lordy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Actually at 25NL I think you should just fold this flop given the PF action. Aces are a huge part of his range and any non ace he's leading with is beating you right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong and you're going to get run over thinking like this ... the flop raise is fine, but the turn action is abysmal

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

I fold this pre-flop. A typical 4-bet range at this level is KK+, sometimes AK. On this flop you beat nothing.

If you think you can get KK to fold, you should just shove. anything less leaves you commited anyway, so you might as well go for maximum fold equity.

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Actually at 25NL I think you should just fold this flop given the PF action. Aces are a huge part of his range and any non ace he's leading with is beating you right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong and you're going to get run over thinking like this ... the flop raise is fine, but the turn action is abysmal

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks rapidacid. What criteria do you use for a flop raise in position? I'll take a crack at my own thought process to see if I'm close:

Unknown villain makes a small but standard PF raise from UTG and then a fairly large re-raise. I would put an unkown early raise on the following range:

AK (16 Combos)
AA (6)
KK(6)
QQ(6)
JJ(6)
TT(6)
99(6)

So, 22/52 combos involve an A or 42% of his range. Do we adjust this after knowing the flop had two aces? (In other words, he would only have 6 ways of making AK and one way of making AA since we know 2 of the aces were destined for the flop.)

If we do adjust for that, then we know that based on his PF action he likely only has an A about 21% of the time:

AK (6)
AA (1)
KK(6)
QQ(6)
JJ(6)
TT(3)
99(6)

So 7/34 combos in his original reraising range have an A.

If everything I just wrote out above is correct, then a flop raise is clearly for value if we can get him to fold a better hand with no ace.

Is my range assumption ok for an unknown? Am I even close on how this sort of analysis should be approached?

Edit: to say he only has one combo of JJ since we hold the other two, but that doesn't swing the math that much.