i dont ever do this? should i keep it that way

[LegallyBlind]

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $673.75
Hero: $576
CO: $573
Button: $663
SB: $3209.20
BB: $453.70

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $24</font>, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($57, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $36</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $126</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($309, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $240</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $426</font>,

villan is tag, borderline nitty preflop, stats are like 17/14/3. He opens up a little more postflop, i have him at raise c-bet's around 25%.


Here's what i was thinking during the hand.

i figured he might just be taking a stab at this flop, since he has position and it probably didnt hit me. So i was planning on c/f the turn if he bet again. But I felt like his bet-sizing on the turn reeked of a draw. (I figured he either had a set or a draw, since he is an active three better and would raise me pf with 88+, so 999 or an overpair are just about out of the queston).

Flop is probably -EV no matter how you look at it. But what about the turn?

[BalugaWhale]

yah you should do this pretty rarely

[Better Than U]

I'm all for plays but not when you don't have any fold equity.

[jmxthievez]

Dude he has to call $186 more, you are not even min raising him...please c/f

[LegallyBlind]

i understand i have no fold equity. i'm not trying to bluff him

[BalugaWhale]

so basically what you are saying his, his range is: air, draws, monsters

i think this is bad, especially cause a reasonable number of his draws contain J's or 9's.

[Hindsight2020]

this is obviously not a bluff

i'd need some reads i was pretty confident in to make this play

i'd rather repop the flop if I thought he was FOS

[captainwacky]

why not just pop him on the flop then? sometimes you'll have the best hand here, but if he's going to do this with 66-88 or a 9 or such, you can accomplish more by 3 betting the flop. The instances in which he has complete air and you drag an entire stack are going to be smaller than the time in which he has a better hand even if he is bluffing or he has a lot of outs on the turn.

[LegallyBlind]

no, i dont think he ever has air. I think his range is draws &amp; monsters. And i don't think he bets that much on the turn with a set (i dunno if he is thinking on this level, but he has to assume im like never drawing here, since i probably shove the flop with a draw). Either way, i think he bets less if he has a monster.

btw, im not trying to defend the play, just giving my reasoning at the time. i honestly believe if he bet less on the turn, i would have folded.

[Hindsight2020]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont think he ever has air. I think his range is draws &amp; monsters.

[/ QUOTE ]
in this case, definitely fold the flop, unless you are QUITE SURE about your read on the turn

if you ARE quite sure, then i kind of like the play