NL50 TT on J-high board line check

[Draidin]

i know you said he does not like to lay down, but with your hand and that board, betting the flop seems essential. Either by leading out or c/r. Lead the turn as well.

[Triggerle]

Oh, he will lay down stuff post-flop if he misses. A 65% VPIP who doesn't would be broke in a few orbits. Given that a 4% pfr is pretty much JJ+, AK, AQ my guess is he will never lay down a better hand on this board. This leads to the question if he has unimproved overs often enough for my turn bet to be correct.

[VPIP100]

Even against a 4% you have to 3-bet this because his range also includes AJ/99 type of hands (probably) and it plays easier postflop. Calling is not that bad tho, especially at 50NL.

Whats his AF? I think if its low you can safely check fold the turn UI. I hate donk-betting here, doesnt make sense since its better to check/call and check/fold river if he bets river again (since he might double barrel here with AQ/AK).

[thoman8r]

How large is your sample for these stats?

[Chomp]

I like Trig's thinking preflop:

Hand 0: 57.790% { 99+, AJs+, AKo } or {JJ+, AQ+}
Hand 1: 42.210% { TT }

So we are probably behind villain's range preflop, so calling hoping to play multiway for set value (or TP if needs be) seems to me a reasonable plan.

I originally wrote a post saying I liked turn, but I changed my mind. And then changed again. All I can think is that one of 4 things must happen on turn:

> He folds, we win dead money, +$16
> He raises, we fold, -$11
> He calls with JJ+, we shut down, we lose -$11
> He calls with whiffed overs, river blanks and goes c/c, we win +$38

Since there are more combos of whiffed overs and villain probably has stationy tendencies, it seems to me the turn bet must be good. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]