Bodog DJIA Prop Bet

thing85 · #1 10-26-2007, 12:58 AM

Bodog currently offers the following prop bet:

Bet On: What will be the Dow Jones Industrial average closing total be on December 31st 2007?

Over 13,600 Points -200
Under 13,600 Points +150

Are there any reliable indicators that might hint at the near term future of this index, or is this bet really a craps shoot (in which case, maybe the under has value)?

ahnuld · #2 10-26-2007, 10:38 AM

lol at making this -EV bet. Just bet futures for even EV

AvivaSimplex · #3 10-26-2007, 11:37 AM

Uh... there's HUGE value on the under. DJIA is at 13,700 right now. A 100-point swing happens every couple of days. I put the odds at closing under 13,600 at 40%, minimum, and more likely around 48%. Check the futures markets--I'm sure they'll offer worse odds than +150.

mtgordon · #4 10-26-2007, 12:42 PM

Yeah, can't you just check the futures and see what they're saying? However I would think that would make it very easy for bodog to set the line correctly and take everyone's money in the long run.

CrushinFelt · #5 10-26-2007, 12:49 PM

Futures are saying that by Dec 21st the Dow will be at $13,770.

mtgordon · #6 10-26-2007, 12:52 PM

Yeah, I guess they don't give the odds though on the things happening right? (futures noob)

thing85 · #7 10-26-2007, 12:53 PM

To reply to the varies responses:

1) I don't have money on any futures exchange sites and I have no experience with them. I have money on Bodog, so it would be easy for me to bet this if there's value.

2) Where can I check this sort of thing via the futures market? Sorry, I'm newb.

3) Even if you think setting this line would be easy for Bodog, they are notorious for being bad at setting lines and tend to have soft props frequently.

thing85 · #8 10-26-2007, 12:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Futures are saying that by Dec 21st the Dow will be at $13,770.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

thing85 · #9 10-26-2007, 12:57 PM

Meh, the odds changed:

Over 13,600 Points -250
Under 13,600 Points +170

Even though futures say this will be over, I don't like -250. Does this really happen 71% of the time?

AvivaSimplex · #10 10-26-2007, 04:00 PM

Intrade offers odds on the DJIA ending December at different levels. The current midpoints (halfway between the bid and ask):

>13500 - 62.5
>13750 - 54.5
>14000 - 44.75

Based on this, every 100 points is worth about 4%. The DJIA is about to close at 13800 today. It's 50-50 that it will be above or below that level in 2 months. Moving 200 points to below 13600 is 8%, so 42-58. If you convert 42% to American odds, you can see the true line should be +138. +170 is a large overlay.

Bodog could easily price this better, but they very often offer overlays on their prop bets.