NL10 River decision

Roger Mainfield · #1 05-06-2007, 04:45 AM

No read on villian. I have been looking through my hand histories because I have played quite a few hands in the last few days and wanted to review my play. Ya my betting sucks, I have no idea why I bet so little on the turn, and the flop could use a bit more too. Bet/call, bet/fold, C/C this river or what? If hero is beat there is really only 2( 22, QJ) maaaaaybe 3(TT) hands the villian could be on.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($33.15)
SB ($10.65)
BB ($2.15)
UTG ($9.85)
Hero ($12.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.4, Button calls $0.40, SB calls $0.35, BB calls $0.30.

Flop: ($1.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1, Button calls $1, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($3.60) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1.5, Button calls $1.50.

River: ($6.60) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

creamfillin · #2 05-06-2007, 05:08 AM

Bet more blah blah blah, shove this river for value

Frosteater · #3 05-06-2007, 05:44 AM

Without reads I'd bet the river again. The river card probably didn't worsen your position in case you're in bad shape and you don't have the luxury of checking behind. I'd have a problem with betsizing, though, since you've bet that small as you've already stated. A $3.30 value bet has to be quite strange for every hand you'd beat here and should make your opponent kind of suspicious. So let's guess what your opponent could have for a moment.

Of course I have even less reads on him than you, but from what we see here I'm almost sure you're not up against 22. For those in love with face cards 22 isn't that great of a hand and you'll encounter this type of player a lot here. I'd think you would have been checkminraised already in that scenario. QJ is more likely but I wouldn't worry about it too much. I haven't seen too many players who slowplay their straight and then wake up once the scare card hits, so if he has it, you're going to pay him off but it's rather unlikely you're going to face a raise.

This leaves us with quite a range of hands your opponent could be holding here and especially with your betsizing we can't really narrow it down that much. Every ace is a possibility, every king as well as long as you've been c-betting a lot, every lower two pair (though unlikely) as well as every pocket pair.

Now you want those hands that you beat to call but you don't want to see a raise from a better hand. Since facing a missed draw is highly unlikely, you're probably facing some sort of hand so there's no real use in trying to induce a bluff. On the other hand you already have $2 in the middle plus the amount you're going to bet, would bet/folding really be an option here with a hand like this?

In most cases I'd bet $2 - $2.5 and be likely to call a raise. However, if you knew you're facing someone who will abuse his stack size to buy him a few pots, betting $1 and calling every raise might be the better option.

Lurker. · #4 05-06-2007, 01:38 PM

bet $4.50, you are probably priced in if he shoves, i didn't check the math.