Winrate as a an indicator of when to move up

[VegasRunner]

Let's pretend I'm a no limit player with an unlimited bankroll. My goal is move up to bigger games while constantly remaining one of the players at the table who is getting the best of it as he moves up the ranks.

What kind of a hourly rate (BB per hour) is a good indication that I am ready to move from 1-2 to 2-5? How about from 2-5 to 5-10?

The reason I'm asking this question is that so much information is posted about the size of working bankroll (usually in number of buy-ins) in relation to when to move up when that really seems like a secondary concern to me.

I know it's important not to go broke, but hourly rate seems like a better indication of where I am as a player.

[JackInDaCrak]

With an infinite bankroll and infinite time you should move up as soon as your winrate at any level is positive, because you have no risk of ruin.

winrate >0 = "getting the best of it"

[VegasRunner]

If I'm making less than 1 BB per hour at 1-2 NL, I think that's a clear indication that I'm not ready to play 2-5.

A +1 BB per hour 12nl player will not be getting the best of it at 2-5.

You follow?

[TheStation]

Depending on game selection you might, I can tell you this is so very important and not often understood well enough by live grinders that just walk into a room and take a seat at whatever table they get pointed to without regard for other games going on at same limit

[VegasRunner]

Well let's assume that I'm knowledgable enough to look for a good game regardless of the level I am at. Do you honestly believe that there is no skill difference between 1-2 and 2-5 live?

[JackInDaCrak]

This question sucks. If you have good game selection at every level, that means you will "have the best of it" at every game you play.

Therefore, the only thing dictating which level you play is your bankroll, or, as you call it, "a secondary concern."

You follow?

[kassdog]

I'm surpirsed this hasn't been ansered. He has a simple question that i would also like to know. Is 5bb/hour good or 10bb/hour. At what point in winrate terms are you considered ready to move up.

[VBCurtis]

The problem with answering the question is that winrate takes soooo long to converge to any useful number. The reason people so often cite bankroll as a guide to moving up is that the combination of winrate and hours played works out to just the right amount of profit to tell you to move up.

If you crush a 1/2NL game for $3000 in 75 hours, move up. 2000 hands isn't enough to be "sure" you're really crushing it, but you have the cash to move up and find out. Similarly, if you beat the same game for $10/hr over 300 hours, you have a solid sample to show you're a consistent winner, grasp the fundamentals well, and should move up to see what happens to winrate. Either way, when you've made enough profit to BR the higher limit, move- at least until mid-stakes.

Since so many different styles can result in 5PTBB/hr winrates at 1/2, there isn't enough info for anyone to predict if 2/5 winrate will be higher or lower (ignoring game selection and a host of other variables).

On the limit side, I find dollar-winrates as one steps up tend to be the same for a while, then rise at the higher limit as one adjusts to the typical opponent at that level. A $10/hr 4/8 player may be $8/hr or $12/hr at 6/12 or 8/16, but is very unlikely to be $0/hr or $20/hr at the moment of the moveup.

-Curtis

[SellingtheDrama]

For the recreational player - move up when you feel you can afford to lose a full buyin at the bigger game.

If you get there and realize the game is out of your league (as happened to me once), get out while you have money and get back to where you belong.

[jeffnc]

[ QUOTE ]
Well let's assume that I'm knowledgable enough to look for a good game regardless of the level I am at. Do you honestly believe that there is no skill difference between 1-2 and 2-5 live?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, is there a size difference between males and females? Depends on the context. I think 12 year old girls are bigger than boys (or whatever age it is). Amazon women are bigger than Pygmy men. And of course, some women are bigger than some men.

Point being, it all depends on the table. At the Bellagio, the lowest game is 2/5, so there's not much reason to think the players there would be any better than a 1/2 game somewhere else. There is a tendency for 2/5 players to be better than 1/2 players, but not necessarily by much, and not necessarily at all depending on the table.