Wong Teasers, Week 4

[knicknut]

Don't mean to infringe on Daliman's thread starting, but a lot of close calls this week I'd like to get some thoughts on. Odds vary depending on where you look.

Falcons (+2.5 with plus odds or +3 with big minus)
Minnesota (+2) definitely
San Francisco (+2) definitely
New England -7.5 with plus odds, -7 with minus odds
Detroit (+2.5 with plus odds in some places)

How far can the +2.5 or -7.5 get positive odds and have it still be +EV at 6pt 2 team -110?

[brendanb438]

I teased on the 25th Detroit w/ the Patriots and got +8.5 and -2 on 5Dimes. Only one I touched so far. Looks like both are at that still on 5Dimes.


Showing a true Pinny line of the Pats -7 and the Lions +2.5 so I am happy with that Wong so far.

Like San Fran alot, not sure about the Falcons but no Johnson for Houston is huge for them. That is if the Falcons can just not suck complete a$$. All the "smart/sharp" cappers around the net love Minny outright which I don't care for. But with the magic of Wong I don't mind it too much.

-Brendan

[DeezNuts]

What about the big negative +3 dogs, NYG +3(-120) and TB +3(-120)? NYG is at home, so I would think that this is a profitable play, maybe not TB, though.

When there are so many plays, how do you really pick and choose? I don't think my bankroll can handle every permutation(I'm already on all possible permutation of NE/MIN/SF).

I know that this is covered in the FAQ, but I'm still pretty unsure.

[MyTurn2Raise]

given that road favorites are the worst subset of the modern era on basic teasers, I would skip out on using New England when they might not even fit the criteria to begin with

[RitmoEnElCaos]

I'd love to hear what Daliman has to say on this, but I'm avoiding NE this week because they are a road favorite, and I'm showing that road favorites that are technically "wongable" only cover 66% of the time, not enough to be profitable in a combination.

[RitmoEnElCaos]

jinx, you owe me a coke

[brendanb438]

I love NE to outright cover the 7 so that is why I played them in the teaser. I do agree they are one of the weaker plays since it is a road fav.

[Thremp]

This is thread is 100% awful.


1) BW teasers are BS. I will galdly go toe to toe with Daliman on them and expect him to admit his getting to worse out of the picks we made last year.
2) The true line is all that matters for picks. It doesn't matter is juice is -80000 or +10000. If you are betting a teaser look at the true line FFS. Its like a bunch of illiterate idiots read SSB. Or didn't...

[censored] fek.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd love to hear what Daliman has to say on this, but I'm avoiding NE this week because they are a road favorite, and I'm showing that road favorites that are technically "wongable" only cover 66% of the time, not enough to be profitable in a combination.

[/ QUOTE ]
Far as I'm concerned, a Wong is a Wong. Sure, road faves are the worst performing wong subset, but they are still profitable over most stretches.

[brendanb438]

[ QUOTE ]
This is thread is 100% awful.


1) BW teasers are BS. I will galdly go toe to toe with Daliman on them and expect him to admit his getting to worse out of the picks we made last year.
2) The true line is all that matters for picks. It doesn't matter is juice is -80000 or +10000. If you are betting a teaser look at the true line FFS. Its like a bunch of illiterate idiots read SSB. Or didn't...

[censored] fek.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you been watching some USF football and drinking?

Agree 100% that these teasers suck compared to last year. No good sites to get 1:1 odds on 2 teamers and whether people agree or not sites are keeping lines out of the "Wong" range.

I have been following the Pinny line as my true line. Do you guys also do this?

I agree and said that NE wasn't a good Wong but I think they outright own Cincy this Monday.

Right now the Falcons, Lions, SF and NYGs all are Wongable from what I see. Pinny has SF at +1 +111 which looks to me like they don't want to move it to +1.5 and into Wong range.