Stars 20/180 - 14 BB's in SB, BB has 12 BB's... 11 players left

[JammyDodga]

I think this is two seperate arguments, but I agree with you to a certain extent.

Say in a certain example, bassed on your hand and your opponants calling range, under normal circumstances you think a push is +cEV 5 % (of your stack). If you were not near the bubble (and assuming you are an average player) then you would be correct to push.

Now if you are on the bubble, it might not be right under some circumstance, because you have a high chance of busting out and the push is only marginally +cEV.

IF, however, because you are on the bubble, you think your opponants range is that much tighter, so you think your push would actually be +EV 15% because of his adjusted play, then you would correct to push despite bubble considerations.

The reason it is correct to push, is not because you are ignoring the bubble, but because of the extra EV caused by others adjusting (and they can even be adjusting correctly)

That said, if there's a bet which was only marginally +EV on the bubble, even after assuming others have adjusted their play, I still think it would be incorrect.

[JammyDodga]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously the payout structure makes a difference to how we play a bubble. However, in a 180, the payout structure means that we should play the bubble aggressively and not aim to move up the ladder if we significantly risk a chance at first place.


[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree.

The first place in a 180 is actually quite low compared to the buy-in. Say the bump to the next pay out is 2 buy-ins, thats only a 25th of the 1st place prize.

In a big MTT, with a 1st place of 500 buy-ins, the move to the next place would have to be 20 buy-ins to have the same effect on your play.

As I said in my last post, agressive play is worthwhile on any bubble. This is because people adjust by tightening up and thereby give you more decent +cEV spots, not because you should take any marginal +cEV bet despite the bubble..

As tournamenets get larger, and payout structures get deeper, the less you should be thinking about the bubble and the more willing you should be to take marginally +cEV bets.

Think about it this way. The STT board is full of bubble examples where strongly +cEV spots arent +$EV. As the numbers of players increases, the less this happens.

At 180, there is still a reasonable effect, and to play the bubble of a 180 exactly the same as a bubble of a 1000, or 2000 player tournament is going to lose you money in the long run.