PLO25: AAxx in 3bet pot on KQ2 flop OOP

[Jurrr]

Hero is EP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and $25; villain is LP with $25 and is 27/12/2.5 over 26 hands.

Hero limps, 5 limpers, villain raises pot to $2.35, hero raises pot to $8.40, limpers fold, villain calls.

Flop Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (~$17)

Hero...?


Was preflop bad? What is my plan now? I have less than a PSB remaining.

P.S. As an aside regarding a different hand - is going AI with KKQQ (3 different suits) preflop for 100BB OK?

[Troll_Inc]

What does the villains 12 pfr represent? Is this position or cards dependent?

I think even if he just has KK 25% of the time, you'll want to get all your monies in (you can do the math yourself).

With that said, with this villain what is the best way to get him all when you are winning? Is he more likely to call when you bet out, or will he try to take the pot if you check it to him?

[Jurrr]

Given the small sample I am totally not sure how position aware the villain is.

So you think we try to get the money in and if he has KKxx/QQxx then so be it? Check-folding is not an option, right?

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the small sample I am totally not sure how position aware the villain is.

So you think we try to get the money in and if he has KKxx/QQxx then so be it? Check-folding is not an option, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if the villain is oblivious to position and is just raising his very best hands, then that increases the chance of KKxx or less likely QQxx. However, if the villain is raising only in LP, then his range greatly increases.

What I'm saying is that this analysis will lead you to the answer of how your hand and that flop play against his range. You'll have to do the math to then determine how you figure to stand in the hand. (I think your guess is right, I can't imagine check folding is the correct play.) But by doing this analysis, you'll have an idea of what to do once you encounter a similar situation with different stack sizes.

[Jurrr]

I understand what you are saying but it is unreasonable to try to analyze this on only 26 hands. His PFR at this point only basically means "he does sometimes raise preflop".

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand what you are saying but it is unreasonable to try to analyze this on only 26 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

So why did you include the information in your post?

And why don't you believe in Bayesian probability?

[Jurrr]

I believe in Bayesian probability. E.g., there's a good chance that you are trolling right now as I've seen you troll before.

[TheRempel]

This shouldn't really be a question IMO. He's raising 12% of his hands and you have an easy decision; stick it in. Running into kings, KQ, or some kind of wrap is no recision to consider folding the flop when you are doing very well against his range.

As for getting it in with KKQQ, it's a fairly good hand to play fast preflop since you'll often want to win the pot on the flop outright but if you find yourself getting it in often with that hand against decent or nitty players you'll be in trouble.

[Jurrr]

OK, thanks, TheRempel.