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  #2941  
Old 09-18-2007, 10:28 PM
Toro Toro is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: one down two to go
Posts: 6,849
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nobody could have seen this AL East meltdown coming...

[/ QUOTE ]
the sox are 1-4 in their last 5 and have outscored their opponents during that stretch

someone posting on a poker message board should prob learn to stop giving a [censored] about variance

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the problem with manipulating stats to make an arguement. The one win was 10-1. The fact they outscored their opponents in that stretch is absolutely absolutley meaningless and of no indication how they are playing.
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  #2942  
Old 09-18-2007, 10:30 PM
Uglyowl Uglyowl is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: They r who we thought they were
Posts: 4,406
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

Unfortunately I don't think the Sox pitching advantage is there anymore. I think it is pretty even actually:


Red Sox

Beckett 19-6 3.20
Schilling 8-8 3.97
Matsusaka 14-12 4.41


Anaheim

Lackey 16-9 3.21
Escobar 17-7 3.46
Weaver 12-7 3.90

Cleveland

Carmona 17-8 3.07
Sabathia 17-7 3.21
Byrd 15-6 4.36
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  #2943  
Old 09-18-2007, 10:30 PM
vhawk01 vhawk01 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: GHoFFANMWYD
Posts: 9,098
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nobody could have seen this AL East meltdown coming...

[/ QUOTE ]
the sox are 1-4 in their last 5 and have outscored their opponents during that stretch

someone posting on a poker message board should prob learn to stop giving a [censored] about variance

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the problem with manipulating stats to make an arguement. The one win was 10-1. The fact they outscored their opponents in that stretch is absolutely absolutley meaningless and of no indication how they are playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except it is. One run losses are less indicative of sucking than 9 run wins are indicative of awesomeness, ya see? Scoring runs is good, and there isn't really any way to spread your runs out or score them "when it matters." So, the fact that you score more runs than your opponent is good, the fact that they didn't randomly distribute in a way that was favorable to you is...variance.
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  #2944  
Old 09-18-2007, 10:31 PM
vhawk01 vhawk01 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: GHoFFANMWYD
Posts: 9,098
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nobody could have seen this AL East meltdown coming...

[/ QUOTE ]
the sox are 1-4 in their last 5 and have outscored their opponents during that stretch

someone posting on a poker message board should prob learn to stop giving a [censored] about variance

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the problem with manipulating stats to make an arguement. The one win was 10-1. The fact they outscored their opponents in that stretch is absolutely absolutley meaningless and of no indication how they are playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except it is. One run losses are less indicative of sucking than 9 run wins are indicative of awesomeness, ya see? Scoring runs is good, and there isn't really any way to spread your runs out or score them "when it matters." So, the fact that you score more runs than your opponent is good, the fact that they didn't randomly distribute in a way that was favorable to you is...variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

In general, ldo.
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  #2945  
Old 09-18-2007, 10:32 PM
vhawk01 vhawk01 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: GHoFFANMWYD
Posts: 9,098
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately I don't think the Sox pitching advantage is there anymore. I think it is pretty even actually:


Red Sox

Beckett 19-6 3.20
Schilling 8-8 3.97
Matsusaka 14-12 4.41


Anaheim

Lackey 16-9 3.21
Escobar 17-7 3.46
Weaver 12-7 3.90

Cleveland

Carmona 17-8 3.07
Sabathia 17-7 3.21
Byrd 15-6 4.36

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, actually, after I posted that I realized that while they probably aren't WORSE than any other top 3, they aren't exactly miles ahead of any other group either. And I agree about home field not being that big of a deal, so...yeah...it probably doesn't matter. You just have to deal with some annoying Yankee fans for about a week if you blow the divisional lead.
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  #2946  
Old 09-18-2007, 10:35 PM
anatta anatta is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: BadKarma---> War---> BadBadKarma
Posts: 2,975
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

[ QUOTE ]
I am beginning to wonder how much it really matters as this point (getting [censored] off at the Sox).

It's going to be the Sox, Yanks, Indians, and Angels and home field is a crap shoot at this point.

Not sure if there is much difference between playing Cleveland or Anaheim in round one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, who cares about sweating .16 or .20 chance or .22 chance or whatever at winning it all. This is a good team, I think better than average chance at winning 3 series and taking the crown. I like Beckett over anyone and Dice K with rest can shut anyone down. Paps has great stuff period. The old arms might have it, might not, who knows. Let it ride.
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  #2947  
Old 09-18-2007, 10:36 PM
Ponies Ponies is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 645
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

Gagne has .625 babip against him since coming to the red sox. So he sucks but is pretty unlucky.
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  #2948  
Old 09-18-2007, 10:37 PM
Toro Toro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: one down two to go
Posts: 6,849
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nobody could have seen this AL East meltdown coming...

[/ QUOTE ]
the sox are 1-4 in their last 5 and have outscored their opponents during that stretch

someone posting on a poker message board should prob learn to stop giving a [censored] about variance

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the problem with manipulating stats to make an arguement. The one win was 10-1. The fact they outscored their opponents in that stretch is absolutely absolutley meaningless and of no indication how they are playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except it is. One run losses are less indicative of sucking than 9 run wins are indicative of awesomeness, ya see? Scoring runs is good, and there isn't really any way to spread your runs out or score them "when it matters." So, the fact that you score more runs than your opponent is good, the fact that they didn't randomly distribute in a way that was favorable to you is...variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

So scoring 10 runs in that one game when the yankees bullpen imploded coupled with 4 other games when the Sox struggled to score indicates awesomeness to you?

Sorry, not buying it.
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  #2949  
Old 09-18-2007, 10:39 PM
vhawk01 vhawk01 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: GHoFFANMWYD
Posts: 9,098
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
nobody could have seen this AL East meltdown coming...

[/ QUOTE ]
the sox are 1-4 in their last 5 and have outscored their opponents during that stretch

someone posting on a poker message board should prob learn to stop giving a [censored] about variance

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the problem with manipulating stats to make an arguement. The one win was 10-1. The fact they outscored their opponents in that stretch is absolutely absolutley meaningless and of no indication how they are playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except it is. One run losses are less indicative of sucking than 9 run wins are indicative of awesomeness, ya see? Scoring runs is good, and there isn't really any way to spread your runs out or score them "when it matters." So, the fact that you score more runs than your opponent is good, the fact that they didn't randomly distribute in a way that was favorable to you is...variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

So scoring 10 runs in that one game when the yankees bullpen imploded coupled with 4 other games when the Sox struggled to score indicates awesomeness to you?

Sorry, not buying it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, its only a 5 game sample size, so of course it isn't incredibly strong evidence. But yes.
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  #2950  
Old 09-18-2007, 10:43 PM
Toro Toro is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: one down two to go
Posts: 6,849
Default Re: *official 2007 red sox thread*

Well then I stand corrected.

Hey everybody listen up. THE SOX ARE PLAYING AWESOME RIGHT NOW!
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