~~~ OFFICIAL YANKEES 2007 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS OR BUST THREAD ~~~

[TMTTR]

[ QUOTE ]
gawd, i hate al reyes and the rest of the devil rays.

oh, yes, and david ortiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

but he does look good in a Yankee cap...

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
gawd, i hate al reyes and the rest of the devil rays.

oh, yes, and david ortiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

but he does look good in a Yankee cap...

[/ QUOTE ]

That commercial cracks me up. Wally's timing is great.

craig

[disjunction]

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Yeah, I've heard a bit about Santana - thing is, Santana's not a reliever. If Edwar continues giving up home runs, he will have to be like Joba Chamberlain - a pitcher only brought in at the beginning of innings. You couldn't put him in for a jam because of his HR rate. This decreases his value.


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Wait this isn't making sense to me. Say you have two pitchers who are equal in ERA or some similar metric, but one of them gives up more homeruns but the other gives up more singles and doubles and walks and stuff. If they are brought in with runners on, the guy at the plate is equally likely to score. But the runners on base are less likely to score on the guy who gives up less hits.

Of course there are other factors like sac flys for a flyball pitcher and strikeouts and stuff. But if those are small effects I don't get the statement, maybe I'm missing something.

[g-bebe]

[ QUOTE ]
gawd, i hate al reyes and the rest of the devil rays.

oh, yes, and david ortiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Triumph36]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I've heard a bit about Santana - thing is, Santana's not a reliever. If Edwar continues giving up home runs, he will have to be like Joba Chamberlain - a pitcher only brought in at the beginning of innings. You couldn't put him in for a jam because of his HR rate. This decreases his value.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wait this isn't making sense to me. Say you have two pitchers who are equal in ERA or some similar metric, but one of them gives up more homeruns but the other gives up more singles and doubles and walks and stuff. If they are brought in with runners on, the guy at the plate is equally likely to score. But the runners on base are less likely to score on the guy who gives up less hits.

Of course there are other factors like sac flys for a flyball pitcher and strikeouts and stuff. But if those are small effects I don't get the statement, maybe I'm missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like the home run pitcher greatly increases variance. Variance = not good. You'd bring in the HR pitcher in a tied game or perhaps down/up by one, but when faced with 2-3 run leads or deficits, he'd be avoided.

[nutshot2]

^^ that makes absolutely no sense to me.

why would you bring in a guy who gives up homers in a tie game? or when you're down 1?

it'd make more sense to bring him in when you have a cushion, in case he does give up that homer.

maybe it's just not clicking for me

[owsley]

he has pitched less than 20 innings in the majors, it is a little early to be labeling him as a "home run pitcher" and saying stupid crap about what his role should be. he is only 26 anyway, a bad start in the majors isnt something that he cant overcome. and given how many guys he is striking out over his first ~20IP its basically impossible for anything to be a bad start. its easy to get carried away about the new guys coming up after having such an embarrassing farm system for so long, but give it all a little time.

[Triumph36]

[ QUOTE ]
^^ that makes absolutely no sense to me.

why would you bring in a guy who gives up homers in a tie game? or when you're down 1?

it'd make more sense to bring him in when you have a cushion, in case he does give up that homer.

maybe it's just not clicking for me

[/ QUOTE ]

pitcher A has a 3.00 PERA but gives up more home runs (and strikes more hitters out). pitcher B has a 3.00 PERA but allows more contact, walks more batters, gives up more hits, etc. if you have a tie game, bases loaded, and two out, who do you want to bring in? you bring in the strikeout pitcher since you want the out - same with one out. if you give up a base hit, it probably means 2 runs, which already significantly decreases your chances of winning.

owsley - true true, but it is a little worrisome. a guy like edwar who's had such a strange path to the major leagues makes it more so.

[nutshot2]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
^^ that makes absolutely no sense to me.

why would you bring in a guy who gives up homers in a tie game? or when you're down 1?

it'd make more sense to bring him in when you have a cushion, in case he does give up that homer.

maybe it's just not clicking for me

[/ QUOTE ]

pitcher A has a 3.00 PERA but gives up more home runs (and strikes more hitters out). pitcher B has a 3.00 PERA but allows more contact, walks more batters, gives up more hits, etc. if you have a tie game, bases loaded, and two out, who do you want to bring in? you bring in the strikeout pitcher since you want the out - same with one out. if you give up a base hit, it probably means 2 runs, which already significantly decreases your chances of winning.

owsley - true true, but it is a little worrisome. a guy like edwar who's had such a strange path to the major leagues makes it more so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't thinking in terms of inherited runners. Makes sense this way, now.

[jtg51]

I'm super impressed by Kennedy. A couple of runs would be nice now.

The playoff rotation is going to be interesting. If the Yankees get the series with the extra off day, do they go with just Wang, Pettitte and Clemens in the first round, assuming everyone is healthy?

The bullpen could be absolutely ridiculous with Rivera, Joba, Kennedy, Hughes, Vizcaino and Edwar.