Bears -3 +105?

Scruff · #1 01-12-2006, 02:22 AM

Bears -3 +105 is the current number on both of my sites. Still new to this watching the line move thing, just wondering, if I like the Bears (which I do), should be waiting or jumping in? Using the line-converter at sportsbookpal, it says that if the move to 2.5 puts it at -119 or lower, I'm still better off taking the 2.5. So I guess this means I should wait right?

If it's already at -3 +105, I would imagine it will hit -2.5 soon enough, is that an accurate take? Just wondering what the smart play here is. Thanks for any advice.

Or should I take Carolina +3 -125 and try for a middle when the line moves? I was thinking the -125 is too expensive to try that though.

craig · #2 01-12-2006, 02:41 AM

You are laying too much at the +3 -125 for a soft middle of -2.5 (if it ever gets there). If you get +3 -125 and -2.5 -120, that is a bad bet.

According to our converter going from -3 +105 to -2.5 is worth -116. You would be getting it for -2.5 -115. That is nothing special. But, if you think that it might go to -3 +110 (they don't move off of the 3 very often in championship type games; well, i mean, as easily, because as soon as the move to -2.5 the middles are too big of a possibility and there is a lot of money being bet) then you should wait. But, if you are uncertain take the line below. I don't really see how you will middle here with EV.

You can get CHI -2.5 -111 (looks nice to me if you like CHI) at www.pinnaclesports.com

craig

playersare · #3 01-12-2006, 02:44 AM

-3+105 is the majority consensus right now, so definitely no point in buying until one of the books moves to compete with the others. pinnacle is currently -2.5-111 (sellable to -3+108) and was as high as +112 earlier in the week.

a middle would definitely be playable at +3-110 (that's where I planted my flag) but probably a bad deal at -125. I see maybe one or two places that might have -115 available, otherwise just wait for the bears line to keep going down, since that's where all the action is shading so far.

Scruff · #4 01-12-2006, 02:49 AM

Thanks guys. That helps a bunch.

I looked into opening an account with pinnaclesports, but the problem is that you can't take your money out without a $10 fee, unless you pull out $500 at a time. I'm not playing at those stakes yet, still learning my way :-)

craig · #5 01-12-2006, 03:00 AM

I think it is $300 unless they changed it. Sometimes they will waive it also. Just ask them.

If not, then wait for it to hit +3 +110 and then buy it down.

craig

p.s. You are not going to get a middle out of this.

craig

craig

lastsamurai · #6 01-12-2006, 04:27 AM

im taking carolina on this one.....I think they are good enough to make adjustments.

legend42 · #7 01-12-2006, 03:41 PM

Carolina has been the most inscrutable team in the league. Even their mid-year 6 game winning streak seems kind of specious. These underachieving up-and-down seasons from talented teams rarely culminate in playoff success. That said, I just can't back the Bears here. I'll be a spectator for this one (maybe a taste of the over).

smartalecc5 · #8 01-12-2006, 05:54 PM

Grossman will be slinging!

Gramps · #9 01-12-2006, 06:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Grossman will be slinging!

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396159

Sluss · #10 01-12-2006, 06:42 PM

I'm not sure why people keep bringing up Grossman. I think he does make the Bears offense better, by better I mean they are more likely to score 20 points instead of 13.

I would also like to point out that last time the Bears crushed the Panthers Kyle Orton was at quarterback. I'm not so sure Grossman is the focal point of this game. If anything he might make the Bears defense better by converting one or two third downs and keeping the Panthers offense off of the field.