100NL Hand Against 4_2_it Turn Decision

[74o_Clownsuit]

Unless I'm getting leveled hard by some sort of gimmick poker account, Villain is 4_2_it. We have no history and he has taggy stats (on the slightly nitty side). I've been at the table only a few orbits but have been fairly active due to hitting some nice starting hands. The only hand I have shown down is AJ; I raise UTG, BU calls. Flop is KTx, I lead, he flats. Turn is my gin card, Q. I crai and get looked up by J9 for the "SHIP IT!". I don't know if 4_2_it has datamined me before but I doubt he views me as getting too much out of line, but he probably expects me to be quite aggressive.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $97.05
BB: $50.00
UTG: $127.45
MP: $100.95
Clown (CO): $198.75
BTN: $81.35

Preflop: Clown is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $4.00</font>, Clown calls $4.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 K (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $7.00</font>, Clown calls $7.00

Turn: ($23.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, Clown???

So I float the flop and plan to fold to a second barrel on nearly any turn card, or bet if checked to. The problem is the K on the turn. Now I think he calls a turn bet lighter and I don't see me pushing him off hands like QQ-TT.

I'm torn between betting or checking. I like betting because a) I get to set the price for showdown because if he just calls he is probably checking most rivers, b) there are a lot of bad cards for my sixes and by checking behind I will hate a river lead from him when a broadway appears, and c) my hand looks face up imo if I just check.

If I check, I can expect to maybe induce a bluff on the river from an air hand like AQ, AJ etc. However, I don't know how often he will fire this river with nothing because he might know that I know his potential river bet smells weak.

I'm not the best with words, but in this seemingly simple hand I'm trying to come up with a really good turn and river line. Maybe I'm just over thinking this but I'd like to know what you guys would do in this situation and what your general plans would be. I'll post action later.

[shpanko]

Only hands you can really rep with a bet (to fold out 77-QQ) are 22/55. There aren't really very many Kx hands that you'll cold call with pf, maybe some KJs type hands but I don't think he'd buy you having a K.

Anyway I doubt he bluffs the river with UI AQo because you're hand is face and you'll be looking to catch a bluff.

So I think you have two choices.

1. Bet to protect against overs which won't put any more money in the pot unless they improve to beat you.

2. Check behind and fold to a bet on the river.

What do you think?

[74o_Clownsuit]

My thinking at the table was along the lines of yours but I'm not sure which decision is better for overall equity/balance etc as Villain obviously has a brain and will remember this hand in the future.

[gimmetheloot]

check it.

[74o_Clownsuit]

Bump for day crowd.

[relativity_x]

check it because you can't stand a cr on the turn.

[4_2_it]

heh, I remember the board, but do not remember my hand or what I did. I suspect I know so PM me if you have the details and I'll try to remember my thought process.

[Speedlimits]

I usually bet here and turn my hand into a bluff. 66 has [censored] showdown value anyways.

[FGators]

Speed,

From the scouting report described by OP about 4_2 if we bet and are called on the turn there is like no showdown value with pocket sixes here, expect to be against nines through aces a lot and getting called.

Oh, and I check here and probably fold the river. I don't think he wakes back up and starts potting AQ here.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Speed,

From the scouting report described by OP about 4_2 if we bet and are called on the turn there is like no showdown value with pocket sixes here, expect to be against nines through aces a lot and getting called.

Oh, and I check here and probably fold the river. I don't think he wakes back up and starts potting AQ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeh I know thats why I said I turn my hand into a bluff

If you check here you just say you give up on the hand which is ok. I think you can bet turn/river here profitably though against a nitty opponent.