#21
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Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
Tweak the stacks a bit on the original and I think its good, the problem is all 3 of them are very close stack wise so your FE is going to be really small, although if there are regs here factoring in metagame its probably good since the gamble itself isnt very bad and it really enhances your "my bubble dont [censored] with me" image. All that to say in a vacuum I think its probably marginal in most cases you could push or fold, but throw in future games and its prob the right play.
I hate sbs flat here unless he's positive BBs reshoving and calling a shove ranges are virtually the same, which I dont think is the case here. Once it gets back around to him I think its a close call since he's even with the shorty and is getting great overlay, though I dont think hes doing THAT great against your range. |
#22
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Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
Now for a little context. This was the 3rd hand in a row that z pushed pre-flop and the fourth in a row that he raised pre-flop.
I thought I had a read on him, and he did exactly what I thought he would do. Does that little bit of info change anything? |
#23
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Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
Yes, that changes things. But I still think you're better off shoving taking the dead money or possibly going HU with ftbplaya - vs. definitely going HU vs. z32 with probably 2 live cards. But the math could be interesting. If ptb calls z32's shove, you fold right?
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#24
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Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
Yes, ftb's call is a fold for me. Which was my thinking in the flat call.
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#25
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Re: $119 FTP Interesting bubble hand
With a player of your caliber in the BB, I push anything I decide to play as the button. My intuition is that the SB is better off pushing anything he decides to play, even with the significant possibility of you trying this move from the BB. If part of the reasoning is that button is just auto calling the SB shove but will fold if you squeeze, then I'd rather just fold. If button is autocalling I doubt he's opening light enough to essentially call all in. I'd push generally though. In your shoes, I'd be really concerned about the SB calling because his flat can either be a huge hand, an invitation for you to squeeze, or he just doesn't know what's he doing and calls/calls with a medium strength hand. It's very educational to consider the math behind making this play, but it's bizarre to me because I'm not opening or flatting 900 and folding to a raise against someone who knows what they're doing. I'm going to consider making this play more often. Apologies for no math.
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