100NL - AA - Max Extraction against Tulegit21?

[Split Suit]

I have Tulegit21 as a very solid 13/6/4.5 over 8K hands (and one of the bigger winners in the 100 game as well). I have 3 bet his steals a few times, but never mess with his UTG/EP raises lite. I think 3betting this pf rly closes his range, and he will lay down everything postflop...calling opens up his stack off range postflop. What line are u taking postflop to max extract? (i dont think he will laydown JJ-QQ, but he cud if i get too fast, because against him im generally pretty tame postflop)

(im runnin very wet/tag right now 17/12/4, atmpt to steal ~33, over 100 hands)


Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $94.50
Hero (BTN): $110.45
SB: $96.50
BB: $114.95
Tulegit21: $122.20
UTG+1: $80.45
MP1: $220.75
MP2: $107.35

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
<font color="red">Tulegit21 raises to $3.50</font>, 4 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Tulegit21 bets $5</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???

[AllTheCheese]

Why is Villain more prone to go broke with one pair in a one-raised pot than a reraised pot? It seems like it should be the other way around. He's super tight UTG, which basically guarantees he has a hand preflop. Value three-bet preflop. Although your history is only to three-bet his later position steals, I can almost promise he won't discern a big difference between that and this. I HIGHLY doubt he folds QQ or AK here. And if you think he does, then make him your punching bag.

[Split Suit]

very good chance hell call/(c/f) JJ-QQ/AK if he doesnt hit huge. i want stacks in. i think callin here opens the possiblity much more than a 3b

[oober]

3bet him preflop, if he has a pp he will usually call. But since you didn't, reraise to 18ish on flop, he will sometimes look at this as a steal and at least call hoping to resteal on a checked turn.

[AllTheCheese]

Okay. Well lemme say a little more and you can go ahead and dismiss my point if you think its wrong.

Here's the range I assign this guy raising UTG, 99+, AQ+.

Case I - Smoothe Call Preflop:
From my experience with this type of players (although this guy may be different), he'll never felt 99-JJ without a set. So a smoothe call preflop is bad if you're playing for stacks, because stacks are only going in when he has a set with these hands. He might felt AK or AQ top pair. With QQ-KK, there's a good shot he felts an overpair.

Case II - Repop to give him bad odds to set mine.
If he calls 99-JJ setmining, he'll be making a bad call and we profit long run. IMO, it'll be pretty hard for him not to felt QQ when the board comes 5 7 8 or something like that. So, I think he felts QQ as much here as he would in one-raised. He felts KK more or less always, which has to be more than in one-raised and he felts AK whenever he hits which is probably more than in one-raised.

Analysis: He felts more with worse in three-bet than one-raised.

Now, I made a ton of assumptions here and I have 0 hands logged with opp so go ahead and reject this analysis, but my general experience with this type of player suggests that a reraise is in order.

[Split Suit]

im not dismissing ur ideas.

tho, his pf range from UTG is JJ+/AK. and against me, hes gonna get sticky with an overpair if he has betting lead. he will probably shutdown JJ-QQ/AK if he doesnt hit if i 3b (srsly, anyone who can think knows that "if i open UTG, with a fairly defined range, and get 3b...that person is tellin me that they can beat my hand"). so i think calling, which is not my default play by any stretch of the imagination, opens his stack off range.

[Johnes Benjamin]

allthecheese, and split to a lesser degree, I think you are making an error in thinking about this hand as opening his "stack off range." Of course this isn't your only concern, but the multiple instances of "stacking off" lead me to believe you are planning to felt too much.

3bet preflop is standard play but calling is fine to mix it up.
Either way, a 13/6 is not usually stacking off with only 1 pair.

You seem like the type of player he is afraid of bluffing him out, so calling makes it seem more like you could be bluffing.
However, calling also seems like set mining, and that will make him wary to stack off when he faces major agg.

3betting is the best way to get him to stack off with KK, or an AK that hits.
calling is good if you are also calling a lot IP and playing back at him a lot.
Do you have a lot of history of mixing it up with him?

also, are your 8k hands datamined? if they aren't then if 17/12 deviates from your avg. at all it is pretty irrelevant, because he will also have 8k hands on you and I'm pretty sure he is multitabling and not paying too much attention to you at this particular table

as played raising the flop is a no-brainer. this is a drawy flop and it is very likely you would play back at him with str8 or flush draw. sucks if he gives up Ak/AQ but calling to let him hit a pair is not only giving up a ton of value from PP's but also letting him hit flush draws/sets way too cheap

edit: just realized you have As so flush draws are not likely, but nevertheless you need to start building the pot if you want any chance at all of stacking him.
I'd make it 12-19

[vizer02]

Lol, I was going to post a hand very similar to the one you described where tulegit stacked off...then noticed it was the exact hand you posted...so I know who you are now lol. Anyway, IMO if you want to play for stacks you should raise his c-bet on the flop. Tulegit pays off way too much with overpairs, so he'll stack off with any overpair here.

[AllTheCheese]

[ QUOTE ]
allthecheese, and split to a lesser degree, I think you are making an error in thinking about this hand as opening his "stack off range." Of course this isn't your only concern, but the multiple instances of "stacking off" lead me to believe you are planning to felt too much.


[/ QUOTE ]

We have AA and he has JJ+, AK (according to OP). Why would we not be going to the felt a ton?

[Kos13]

Raise...I've seen him stack off with overpairs when he's clearly been behind. I'd still 3bet PF, though.