Theoretical: Making -EV bets on the river

[ogdundar]

You are on to something, however your reason for making these bets is wrong. As pointed out already, the fact that you are playing non-premium hands fast preflop is obvious after a few orbits, whether hands have gone to showdown or not. You shouldn't make a -EV bet to hide this information.

These bets are a way of creating an overall riverplay which is very hard to counter/exploit. From a strictly EV point of view, you should have a somewhat polarized betting range here. You either have top pair+ or you have nothing. Being too polarized is however very exploitable against thinking opponents, especially if you play them regularly. If you make the bet with weak middle pair sometimes, you will be able to make more valuebets on the river and possibly bluff more if you pick your spots well. It's all about fitting your overall game.