FT 180--- KJ--i hate these spots!

authority11 · #1 10-21-2007, 10:58 PM

No reads on villain. Table has been playing quite loose PF with lots of raises getting called by J10, A6 etc etc.

Full Tilt Poker, $8 + $0.80 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 400/800 Blinds, 100 Ante, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): 25,030
BTN: 21,500
SB: 25,019
BB: 29,092
UTG: 9,424
UTG+1: 5,913
MP1: 16,810
MP2: 6,440

Pre-Flop: (2,000) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
4 folds, Hero raises to 2,200, BTN calls 2,200, 2 folds

Flop: (6,400) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets 4,400, BTN calls 4,400

Turn: (15,200) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero ???

The flat call + that turn card is really scary to me as I think it hits a lot of this guy's ranges with random pairs + straight draws or two pairs. How should I proceed?

illini43 · #2 10-22-2007, 03:01 AM

He has a psb left in his stack.

Let's say you c/c a push. You only need 33% equity to justify a call. Even against a tight range of villians JJ-99,66,AJs,KJs,QTs,T8s,87s,AJo, you have 36% equity.

IMO you will be pot committed to the hand.

So, if you are pot committed, which line is the most EV betting or checking planning to call?

Betting probably won't fold out any hands that you are behind, and I think most villians call with draws.

Checking allows for a free card and a draw to catch up and put you in a sticky spot on the river.

I think betting pot (putting him AI) is the most EV play here. You are getting calls from hands you are ahead of and avoiding giving draws a free card. He also might fold some draws, which isn't a bad thing.

Checking seems too weak and c/f at this point at a loose table might not be the best either. It might not look pretty, but pushing might be the best play here.

authority11 · #3 10-22-2007, 03:16 AM

Still want some more responses, but I just had to respond to your the Rashard MendenHeisman in your location. WTF is the deal with taking out Juice Williams randomly in the 2nd half when he was playing an awesome game up to that point?

---edit oops, ya I meant 2nd quarter. Yea, I agree that McGee probably is the the better natural talent, but Juice had pretty good numbers in the game up to that point.

illini43 · #4 10-22-2007, 03:22 AM

They took him out in the 2nd quarter.

I used to be a big Juice fan, but I think McGee offers more as a QB. The only thing Juice might do better than McGee is run, but if Juice is better, it's not by a lot - evidenced by McGee's huge scramble. McGee has better touch on his passes and knows when to throw the ball away.

I wish Zook would just stick with one or the other and stop this flip-flop nonsense. I really hope McGee starts next week vs. Ball State.

umistboy · #5 10-22-2007, 06:00 AM

My initial reaction was to check call. I'd really be uncomfortable with a push from him but you'd probably have to call.

My thinking is that he wouldn't take such drastic action though if we checked.

Rawsome · #6 10-22-2007, 07:00 AM

First post, so hope I don't get flamed too much. I would check/fold to a shove or check/call a small bet and reevaluate on the river. The flat call on the flop may have represented a draw (that could have gotten there) in addition to a set/ two pair/ etc. It really just seems like you're beat and you can still get away from the hand at this point with sufficient chips to play and get your money in a better spot. If you think about the hands that you beat that call preflop and call flop, there don't seem to be many other than something like 78 or a weaker jack (I think JQ could be a real possibility and obv beats you). I feel like if you bet you need to put him all in and I'm not sure I would want to put that much of my stack at risk with a hand like that. Its too bad you didn't have more info on this player, it would make the decision a lot easier. Another question: if the table is particularly loose and you know they're going to call on draws, would you rather a) bet close to pot to make a draw more expensive but lower the likeliness of you getting paid on your made hand or b) bet something like 1/3 pot to keep pot small and not commit yourself and then bet big on turn if it seems like he's on draw and card is unrelated?
best of luck,
rawsome

authority11 · #7 10-22-2007, 01:42 PM

Alright, so I really didn't like turn so I decided to be a big baby and check. I didn't instantly check, I tried to at least wait a bit before I checked. He comes out with a 1/2 pot bot which effectively commits himself.

Full Tilt Poker, $8 + $0.80 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 400/800 Blinds, 100 Ante, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): 25,030
BTN: 21,500
SB: 25,019
BB: 29,092
UTG: 9,424
UTG+1: 5,913
MP1: 16,810
MP2: 6,440

Pre-Flop: (2,000) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
4 folds, Hero raises to 2,200, BTN calls 2,200, 2 folds

Flop: (6,400) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets 4,400, BTN calls 4,400

Turn: (15,200) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 8,800, Hero ???

umistboy · #8 10-22-2007, 01:51 PM

You were pot committed at flop so would have had to go all-in. If he had you beat he still does and so would have called anyway.

Push all-in and at least be happy there was a chance you got chips from a weaker hand.

BarryLyndon · #9 10-22-2007, 02:35 PM

PF is fine.

If Button is agg/floater, I like a CRAI here. A lot of buttons will gladly lead here on this board. If not, you keep the pot small, which is a good thing with KJ.

Not that this is BY FAR different on other boards.

Q is a terrible card, worst one in the entire deck for you. A huge chunk of his calling range got there and is not going anywhere. Leading "by default" is an OK argument that becomes weaker when you consider you still have plenty of BBs to work with an play strong poker. I don't like taking a stand here, really.

Tough spot, bad card, I'd quietly check/fold and move on.

Barry

quirkasaurus · #10 10-22-2007, 02:48 PM

i agree with a fold... although grudgingly...

the flat call looks like QT to me...
so when he hits the Q, he figures he's ahead now.

so.... what happened?? :-)