Huangagain (DialIdol) & Ricky (IDF) updates

[4Tay]

Huangagain from the DialIdol forums had accurately predicted who would get the boot prior to this week for four weeks straight. He predicted Brandon, Stephanie, Chris Sligh, and Gina. His credibility sky rocketed to the roof, which has been reflected in BookMaker.com's "Who Will Go" wager numbers immediately following the spoiler.

Yesterday morning, he made an insider thread and only wrote "Lakisha" as the body of the post. Lakisha's number eventually ballooned to -600 to get the boot as insider money poured in on her. On the results show, Lakisha was safe and Haley got the boot.

Huangagain edits his original post and writes:

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This was for Claude...now he can feel good about being right...I just put Lakisha's name here knowing eveyone would think she was going home even though I didn't say anything! LOL Truth be told, I'm keeping my inside information to myself (hence I didn't post a ranking) so no one has to argue about what I do and don't know and whether or not I'm a fraud. Lakisha may have been scraping the bottom this week, but I knew she wasn't going home! And now Claude can argue that to!! Go for it!

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Then...

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Did I ever say who was going home? Did I ever post a list? But getting you to be the focal point has worked! Enjoy the limelight! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Haley's number went to +600 to go home, and went down an hour before the results show started as money poured in on her (I'm not sure what the exact numbers were). This may indicate insider's were throwing a curveball to get better value for Haley, whom they knew was going home. They used Lakisha as the decoy because she had the lowest DialIdol score. BookMaker made a lot of money yesterday, and thanks to this curveball, they'll probably continue to offer this bet the day of the results show.

Another theory is that the executives of American Idol are behind all this, and may have leaked out the fake Lakisha spoiler to find their rat.

Anyway, moving on to Ricky. His latest ranking:

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8. Melinda
7. Blake
6. Sanjaya
5. Jordin
4. Lakisha
3. Chris R
2. Phil
1. Haley

This week I got them early; and asked questions this time. According to the phone results ONLY, Melinda / Blake were about 100 votes OFF of each other. Melinda had around 100 votes more then Blake. Not an exact number, but around that. Everyone else was close, but Haley. Phil/Chris/Lakisha/Jordin/Sanjaya all neck in neck. parted from each other by 100-300 votes.

There was a huge gap though between Blake/Melinda and everyone else, HUGE gap. a couple thousand votes.

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not spoiling anymore -- get someone who isn't a 'liar'. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Tired of being told i'm lying when i've proven myself beyond anything I could ever do.

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Know what your talking about, I usually get them a good 10 minutes after the show, I got them when Hailey was singing.

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Analyze all you want. Beware of insider information.

[GoRedBirds]

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This week I got them early; and asked questions this time. According to the phone results ONLY, Melinda / Blake were about 100 votes OFF of each other. Melinda had around 100 votes more then Blake. Not an exact number, but around that. Everyone else was close, but Haley. Phil/Chris/Lakisha/Jordin/Sanjaya all neck in neck. parted from each other by 100-300 votes.

There was a huge gap though between Blake/Melinda and everyone else, HUGE gap. a couple thousand votes.

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I'm confused here. Didn't Seacrest say there were 35 million votes this week? How is a couple thousand votes a "HUGE" gap? Isn't this a recount in a vote that big?

What am I missing?

[soflat]

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I'm confused here. Didn't Seacrest say there were 35 million votes this week? How is a couple thousand votes a "HUGE" gap? Isn't this a recount in a vote that big?

What am I missing?

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I'm guessing that they leave off the last three 0's in the numbers. So 'a couple thousand' really means a couple million. And 100 votes means 100,000.

[mynamewastaken]

This 'insider' info both infuriates me and makes me giddy. I said on another forum as soon as I saw the +600 on Haley (and whatever the comparable number was on Phil) to pound them both. I don't have an account at bookmaker and I'm not really interested in opening new accounts, but with value like that I may not be able to resist (I realize it's easy to sit on the sidelines and tell other people what to bet, but I can promise you if that bet was at Pinny or WSEX I would have put as much as I could afford to lose on Haley and Phil, as combined they were >90% to be booted. In fact, I did have small-to-medium wagers at Pinny on Haley and Phil to be booted (and smaller wagers still on Lakisha and Sanjaya) but all these were placed at significantly worse odds than those offered at BM.

At this stage, NOBODY is -600 to be booted. If that price was on Haley or Phil do you think people would have been over it like they were on Lakisha?

I don't care what anybody says about revealing your sources or whatever other nonsense... For all you know I'm both Huangagain and Rickey... anyone can post anything on the internet and without a solid evidentiary foundation anybody who bets real $$$ on the words of some random alias on the internet deserves to lose their money.

This is the same logic I use to dismiss any list that contradicts the bottom 3 as presented on the show. When the show airs the bottom 3 (and please let's not get into the language of it again... there's another thread for that and frankly I've grown tired of debating it, I'm pretty sure thing85 has covered it as well as can be done) they put the full weight of 19 Entertainment, Simon Cowell, Nigel & the producers, and even Seacrest who does the announcing behind the results. All these people and more are ascertaining that the bottom 3 as presented is the true bottom 3, whereas Rickey's list has no authority nor evidence whatsoever. Believe who you want, but barring evidence on either side I will always side with whomever puts their name and reputation on the line over someone with nothing to lose nor gain.

Dialidol is not wrong, it is just imprecise. Chris, Phil and Haley were all rated as 1-8, and in fact they were 6, 7, 8. From DI's perspective, it is batting 100% this week, however, it is too imprecise to be useful for gambling purposes. Unless there was a bet offered on "Is Blake safe this week?" (referring to last week). Any other bet that I can think of using last week's DI numbers would be an error in interpretation, not an error with DI.

Huangagain seems like a common troll. Rickey's situation is a little more complex because of his top24 spoiler, but I maintain that this was all smoke and mirrors and if we traced the 'spoiling' of the top24 from start to finish it would seem far less impressive.

Thing is, this season has been predictable over and above previous seasons. Part of this is the wealth of info that has amassed over 5.x seasons. Part of it is this season is just awful, from a theatrical standpoint. The biggest surprise so far this year was that there hasn't been a surprise elimination, and there's some twisted irony in there somewhere. I admit I wasn't expecting the Sanjaya thing to explode the way it did, but I did place a $100 bet on him to win as soon as his first audition aired, because he was generating tremendous buzz (as was Antonella) early on and I knew, if nothing else, he wasn't going to get lost in the masses.

I spend WAY too much time thinking about this, but in my defense I do this in lieu of a summer job (since I'm going travelling this summer and won't be able to work). So there is my reason for posting about American Idol Predictions on the internet. Also, when I make a prediction I always try to explain why, and you can bet that if this reasoning involved insider info I would either (a) keep it to myself and make a ton of $ off it or (b) use it to help others, and therefore back it up with some evidence.

So here's the million $ question: What is Rickey's and Huang's motivation for posting this info? You've heard my motivations for posting predictions... think about theirs.

[thing85]

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For all you know I'm both Huangagain and Rickey...

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I knew it!

And to answer your other question, I don't know about Huangagain, but Ricky likes when people suck his dick for the information. He's an obvious attention whore. With that said, I 100% agree with your post.

[4Tay]

Huangagain mentioned last week that he's going to put the real results this week. Take it for what it's worth:

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Idolers were all over the board during voting. The final breakdown:

1. Phil
2. Jordin
3. Melinda
4. Blake
5. Chris
6. Sanjaya
7. Lakisha

Sanjaya and Lakisha were REALLY close in the final voting.

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[thing85]

I don't believe it for a second, but we shall see.

[thing85]

Just want to add, I find it almost impossible that Phil was #1. He was in the first spot this week, has consistently been in the B3 (even after a decent performance), and clearly has no strong following. No way he passes Jordin and Melinda in votes. That alone seems to invalidate the entire ranking. Although I do think Sanjaya and Lakisha are the B2, this guy is hoping he's right (about Lakisha) so that he can regain his false credibility.

[smbruin22]

it'll be very interesting to see this week......

and if phil is in bottom 3, i think DI has taken its final death blow (although the one poster may be right about first 30 minutes, which i think would show Chris R going home...... of course, after simon's antics, if the producers have any leeway, probably chris stays)

for all those who believe that DI is useless, here's your chance to avoid sanjaya (DI's choice) and pick up phil very cheaply (DI's golden boy but perpetually in AI's bottom 3)

[pokerplayer28]

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Just want to add, I find it almost impossible that Phil was #1. He was in the first spot this week, has consistently been in the B3 (even after a decent performance), and clearly has no strong following. No way he passes Jordin and Melinda in votes. That alone seems to invalidate the entire ranking. Although I do think Sanjaya and Lakisha are the B2, this guy is hoping he's right (about Lakisha) so that he can regain his false credibility.

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There were a lot a country votes that no one claimed, plus phil fans were voting as hard as they could. Its very possible he got more votes then a safe melinda, We dont even know how close the votes were from top to bottom in previous weeks.