Sick river spot with top set

[testaaja]

Villain was 21/7 over 70ish. Haven't played a pot against him. I don't know about river. What do we put him on?


Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $55.89
BB: $83.46
UTG: $92.70
MP: $114.30
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $181.55</font>
BTN: $156.26

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $5, MP calls $5

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($19.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $17</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $17

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($53.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($53.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $46</font>, Hero ???

[biendover]

AQ w/heart out? Iono. I can also see it as a "I'm betting riv cause your turn check was weak, my pair must be good."

How aggressive is this guy? What's his river AF?

I'm calling this because I'm a calling station.

I have mixed feelings about the turn check. I usually bet this 80% of the time.

[Unknown Soldier]

bet turn as played call

[testaaja]

flop/turn/river AF 0.5/3.5/2.6 total af 0.9~

[Mossberg]

I'm pretty sure that things like AF by street are pretty useless over a 70 hand sample. I think the turn check is fine (though I may be off here since the first two responses advocate a bet). As played, I'm definitely calling the river bet. I see players with these stats doing stuff like calling this flop with a set. You have top-set and this is Party 100 ffs [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[nickg1532]

[ QUOTE ]
As played, I'm definitely calling the river bet. I see players with these stats doing stuff like calling this flop with a set. You have top-set and this is Party 100 ffs [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

[Unknown Soldier]

he could have a lower set/Q here. he'll have a flush too quite a bit, but not enough to make it a fold. I'm fine with the turn check, but I usually bet to get value out of worse hands in case another heart hits/charge flush draws. I'm folding if raise (unless he prices me in)