Orange's flush hand- NO FLAMING - Page 5

Noam Chomsky · #41 10-02-2007, 09:35 AM

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dammit people, that could have been a good thread...so Im going to continue it. If you start with the damned flame wars again, I hope a mod temp-bans you for 3 days...this is freaking poker discussion website, not some idiotic ego bloating blog.

villan is loose and semi active. only been here one orbit but he has been limping alot. he's like 40/14 over 30 hands. he doesnt seem very good and definitely active. hero has been pretty active, i just won a large pot with 22 on a AA2 board vs. a donk's turned flush.

i may appear like a station, i've been calling alot of bets. what is your turn play here?

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $80.90
UTG+1: $986
CO: $289.93
Button: $141.14
SB: $313.85
orange: $563.95

Pre-flop: (6 players) orange is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, orange checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($7, 3 players)
orange bets $6, UTG+1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($25, 3 players)
orange bets $20, UTG+1 raises to $40, Button folds, orange ...?

Anyway, I'm 3betting that turn all day versus THIS villain...We have reads that he is "loose, active, and overall bad"...

I think his range is much wider than just flushes here...raise turn to like 120ish and you can fold to a shove...he will call with EVERYTHING he raised with initially and only shove higher flushes. He'll call with sets hoping to fill up, with lower flushes because he's a donkey, and with 2pr because he aint foldin' 2-pair.

VB the river and fold to a shove....

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My two problems with this are:

1. I think the villain that was described is bluffing some goofy hand a lot.

2. My biggest problem is that you're planning on folding to a shove. This guy overvalues hands like it's his job, that's why he sucks. Allowing him to push us off the best hand b/c he thinks he's value towning us with the 900th nuts is a big mistake.

You think he's not shoving his actual hand 7h3h? You're nuts. He has a flush. Flushes are one of the best hands in no limit hold em. He's been calling every single raise with any two suited for three hours just hoping for the chance to finally hit that flush and he's aaaar in and psyched about it no matter how much we show him he's beat.

ikestoys · #42 10-02-2007, 09:37 AM

do you think he's throwing 200bb in the pot w/o a flush?

Noam Chomsky · #43 10-02-2007, 09:57 AM

I can definitely see this guy four bet shoving the turn with any set, maybe two pair and every time with a three high flush.

Guys like this don't think in terms of how deep their stacks are and how tight OUR range for getting it in will be accordingly, they love to make bad decisions and I think it's a huge mistake to allow him to make a bad enough decision to actually push us off of the best hand.

ASPoker8 · #44 10-02-2007, 09:58 AM

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Based on our read, we have villain's range well beat on the turn.

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1.) LOL
2.) That's not the issue.

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1.) LOL
2.) yes it is

Jamougha · #45 10-02-2007, 09:59 AM

AS,

can you give us a pokerstove range where we're significantly ahead of villain?

ikestoys · #46 10-02-2007, 10:00 AM

guys, its not a matter of whether or not we have the guys range beat, the question is whether or not we beat his calling range of our 3 bet.

Jamougha · #47 10-02-2007, 10:01 AM

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guys, its not a matter of whether or not we have the guys range beat, the question is whether or not we beat his calling range of our 3 bet.

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Yeah but if we don't have his range beat atm then that's not going to improve. hmm?

ikestoys · #48 10-02-2007, 10:04 AM

i sincerely doubt that you can narrow his range tight enough based on a minraise jamougha, unless you can read souls

ASPoker8 · #49 10-02-2007, 10:16 AM

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AS,

can you give us a pokerstove range where we're significantly ahead of villain?

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Is this a joke?

If you honestly think we are not ahead of his range when he minraises us on the turn, you need to re-evaluate.

Jamougha · #50 10-02-2007, 11:09 AM

I don't really know if we're ahead of his range. We're a significant dog to his range of flushes. He may also have 2 pair or a set, but those hands are significantly discounted because he will tend to raise AJ, AA and JJ preflop, and his ratio of raising the flop and of calling the turn are much higher with set/2 pair hands than with flushes. If he's bluffing the obviously those hands will fold so they're not significant.

Overall I would guess that we are ahead with about 55% equity from mucking around in 'stove. Maybe more, maybe less. Given that we have some RIO I wonder what equity we need to raise here?