25/50 HU vs hotntot: Weird little river c/r bluff

[ike]

Villain is hotntot. He's playing pretty well. Not sure what the relevant details are. He hasn't been firing 3 barrels for value or to bluff all that much, but I'm pretty sure he finds a vb with aq or better here. I think he checks the turn with a flush draw a significant amount of the time as I haven't been checkcalling the flop then giving up very often. I haven't really been caught bluffing in any big pots so far.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $25/$50 Blinds - 2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<font color="black">Hero (BB): $6,498.00</font>
SB: $18,335.25

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB raises to $150.00</font>, Hero calls $100.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($300) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">SB bets $200.00</font>, Hero calls $200.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($700) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">SB bets $500.00</font>, Hero calls $500.00

<font color="black">River:</font> ($1700) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">SB bets $1,200.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $5,648.00</font>

[Sasuke]

If the board didnt pair i would probably like it.. but it did. for all you know you are cr into the squirrel desert right here.

[ike]

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If the board didnt pair i would probably like it.. but it did. for all you know you are cr into the squirrel desert right here.

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what does squirrel desert mean? and he didn't fire the turn with a 5 unless it was 2 pair, which there just aren't that many combos of.

[Grolsch]

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what does squirrel desert mean?

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gonna take a wild guess and say nuts

[king_of_drafts]

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what does squirrel desert mean?

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gonna take a wild guess and say nuts

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lolllllllll he probably meant squirrel dessert

I was taught "dessert has one more s because you want more of it"

[Astyanax]

Retrded answer to a good question above...Don't post 'he must have the nuts' or 'he may do' - think about his line.

Firstly what are you trying to bluff him off?

a) If he was pot buliding a high flush draw and it got there you cannot get him off the hand as you are repping flopped trips so pretty much 1010. He feels you would raise turn to get paid so he will not fold high flush. He may poss fold lower flush as he can put Q9 clubs in your range for value shoving.

b) Higher ace: This looks good. You can get him off AQ and AK but possibly not flopped top two. He might feel that you think you're splitting with an ace and so trying to pick up dead money but he has you beat in alot of cases (and indeed he does here).

c) Blah Blah Blah - he might have nuts

d) What are the chances of him having air? Gutshot??

Ok so we get him off low flush (as you have played it strong); weak ace but not top two. Obviously his feelings towards the hand change not according to what he holds (Baby Flush &gt; top two ldo) but according to what he thinks yout hink he might hold....

Post results eventually as this is not a particularly theoretical question.

[Astyanax]

****only repping flopped trips (1010) but could have anything.

[king_of_drafts]

I really hate this, but AJ, AT, and QK might fold SOMETIMES I guess. It's possible he fires the turn with K5 or Q5 so he can triple barrel river, but I could see him doing the same with clubs

[fatgirl_lover]

your play is too suspicious that is my first thought without thinking. the turn is a fold. ike how is it coming with my book?

[Go_Blue88]

my general rule at midstakes is to avoid making big bluffs on paired boards.

since lots of other advice in this thread seems pretty bad, i figured i'd throw that out there.