UFC 75

[tennisjump]

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I think there's value in Hamil, Bisping hasn't done all that much and I think he's a product of the ufc promoting him

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I completly disagree but i would like to see further reasoning why i should not bet the Farm on Bisping. First of all is Bisping overrated? Maybe.

Is Hamill overrated? For sure that guy is an absolute one trick Pony. He has fought no one that matters even a bit. His greco roman and freestyle wrestling might be great but his hands are non existend. He quite training with Ortiz, and his camp looks really questionable. Beside that rumor has it that Ufc is not his biggest Priority since he is focusing on the olympics 2008. The only way he might get a win is in a lay and pray decision.

Bisping on the other Hand has a great Camp. Wolfslair Academy is by far the best regarding mma that europe has to offer. He prepared for his last two Ufc fights with Kazeka Muniz Gracie Barra Blackbelt and PanAm Champion. Bisping has a strong Kickboxing background. For the fight with Hamill he trained a decent amount of time at big bear with Rampage. Overall it is safe to say that he is the more well roundet Fighter. An aspect i would not want to overlook is that london is his hometurf he does not need to travel has the crowed behind him and his whole structure lined up.

I bought Bisping for 2 Units @ -225 wich i see as a great price.

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Well I don't really think Bisping has been tested in takedown defense to the extent thst Hamill could test him. I wasn't aware that the fight wasn't his full motivation, that does give me pause, can Bisping do damage off his back? He seemed to be taken down with moderate effort in his last fights. I don't think a lay and pray is out of the question

[Performify]

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Vs Jardine, all I saw was a street brawler with good punching power. Any fighter who slips consequently making jardine think he's hurt and come in foolishly can land heavy shots to win. I guess you've pointed out that since i don' tknow enough about Alexander, maybe I shouldn't put any money on him or against him, but I thought .5u against @ +160 woulda been decent. Your inside knowledge owuld make things completely different so you can't fault our analyzing skills for something that's just not available to us.

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I'm not faulting you for anything [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm just saying, people are making huge assumptions on Houston's abilities based on 48 seconds of fighting, in which Jardine throws one punch and Houston a bunch.

Labeling him a "street brawler" is a real stretch imo. You just don't have enough available information to make a determination on Houston except to say:

1) He can take a Keith Jardine punch to the chin
2) He is quick
3) He is powerful
4) He is aggressive

I just rewatched that fight, fresh, to be able to describe.

Houston comes out, tries a leg kick, Jardine steps inside and clips him with a left. Houston is on one leg when he gets hit, he gets knocked over -- maybe knocked down. Houston immediately gets up and puts Jardine in the clinch. He does NOT catch Jardine coming in -- Houston stands up, gets in the clinch, pushes Jardine against the cage. its a full five seconds before Houston throws his first punch after he gets Jardine in the clinch. Its definitely NOT something that happens because Jardine rushes in after he drops Houston.

I'm not saying Sakara may be a good bet based on your information. That's your call. But I'm just counciling that I think a vast majority of people, including a couple MMA sharps I know, are dramatically overestimating their ability to judge Houston based on 30 seconds of a fight.

I think there's sharp money moving on Sakara with people thinking his boxing background and experience give him a better edge than expected against what people see as an undisciplined street brawler. I agree with you, I think a lot of people are saying that Sakara has a great chance here and its driving some money on him.

I just think you've should consider that Houston has way more experience than most give him credit for (admittedly smaller stage, smaller fights, but its still experience), and is much more well rounded of a fighter than most give him credit for, especially those labeling him a street brawler or etc based on the beating he put on Jardine.

He's been training jits with NAGA hall-of-famer and the so-called "Guru of Grappling" Bob Schirmer and wrestling with a top Nebraska wrestling coach and several all-american NE wrestlers. He's got amazing conditioning, explosiveness, and power, and trains with Muay Thai champions including a former world champion and not one but two US champions.

Outside of the handicapping perspective, I'm curious to see where Houston goes from here. Assuming he does blow by Sakara like he's standing still, who at 205 do they put him in with? Might be an interesting matchup for someone with a ground game, to see him tested on the ground. Thiago Silva, maybe?



(edited after re-watching the fight)

[goodsamaritan]

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uw4Wi8YxqIk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLFPi...ed&search=

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrpqT...ed&search=

Yeah i'm absolutely convinced Kongo is value all day easily. Unless CroCop suddenly wants to take people down, this is easily the best line on the card.

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I really wouldn't be shocked to see CroCop take Kongo down from the clinch and use some GnP. He's used GnP before when he's already had someone hurt, but given Kongo's crappy ground game he may look to work some of that in earlier. I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen, but I wouldn't be as confident as you are that this fight is staying on the feet.

[DannyOcean_]

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I know it doesn't really offer anything in terms of the fight with Mirko, but it's his only fight that went three rounds. Would like to see how his cardio looked.

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His last fight went 3 rounds, it was with Asseurio Silva.

Goodsamaritan,

Frankly, i think CC is too prideful to take down Kongo. It would be admitting that he's a bit scared. I just don't see it happening, maybe like 5% or less of the time i would guess. Not counting if he hurts him badly and GnP's, but an actual takedown attempt.

[AggroFish]

In the Gonzaga fight Cro Cop was taken down early and ate a lot of elbows. The ref stands it up and he gets knocked the [censored] out...nobody's unbeatable, i.e Serra vs GSP. I think Cro Cop wins more than he loses to Gonzaga.

I think everyone agrees Kongo isnt taking Cro Cop down, but I wouldnt be suprised if Cro Cop took Kongo down.

prediction: Cro Cop - Kongo ends just like this fight:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xdp...anderlei-silva

Edit to add let's not forget that Mirko went the distance with Fedor which few have done. One of the few others was Nogueira who also beat Cro Cop. This Kongo guy's getting destroyed!

[MikeyPatriot]

DO,

I don't know how I forgot that. Weird.

[Dark Helmet]

Perf: What are Houston's ground skills and TDs like? Its a start that he trains with good people, but CroCop trained with Verdum for awhile, and CroCop still isn't someone you need to be scarred of submitting you if you know what I mean.

I have a bet on Sakara at +160. Main reasons for it was I assumed hype was behind Houstons odds as is often the case with a fighter who the public has only seen spectacular wins from. Plus Sakara has way more UFC experience (not all successful), but no wins as big as Houston over Jardine. Anticipating a standup fight, I had to favor Sakara with his boxing skills. If Houston has ground skills though I may hedge out of the position since the line has dropped so much.


Looking on to UFC 76, I like Tavares at +145 (on 5Dimes) vs Tyson Griffin. I think Tyson may have Tavares in straight wrestling by a little, but I think Tavares has the edges in standup and submissions. What you guys think?

[Performify]

I wouldn't be scared of Houston submitting me if I'm Sakara, either. Although he does have a couple power-based chokes that he can certainly use effectively if you give him the opportunity.

However I would be scared knowing that Houston can probably take me down at will, can pass my guard, can effectively defend submissions (high probabilty at the level of Sakara's jitsu anyways), and can pound the [censored] out of me in the half guard or side mount.

Not sure if that answers your question.

I'm not saying Houston is invincible or that he's the bet of the century yet. I just think a lot of people are overestimating Sakara and underestimating Houston. Based on what i've seen of his training and his skills and his workouts and his condoning and his intelligence and his motivation and his speed, explosiveness, strength and toughness, I think he's got all the tools he needs to come out victorious Saturday.

Sakara has a chance but not a good one, in my opinion. Houston will finish this fight on the ground or from the clinch. He's not going to stand and trade with Sakara. He's either going to put him against the fence and use his excellent muay thai from the clinch, or he's going to take him down and pound him.

-P

[freck]

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Looking on to UFC 76, I like Tavares at +145 (on 5Dimes) vs Tyson Griffin. I think Tyson may have Tavares in straight wrestling by a little, but I think Tavares has the edges in standup and submissions. What you guys think?

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I like this bet a lot as well - at least instinctively. I've yet to be overly impressed by Griffin, and Tavares looked good at the last Fight Night. As you say Tavares may have trouble wrestling with and taking down Griffin, which would be a pre-requisite for his best offense on the ground, but I'll re-watch the tapes and check that out in due course I guess.

[ehafner]

Yea gotta like Tavares at +145. He looked pretty damn impressive on that Fight Night.