8/5 WEC MMA write-up

[freck]

hi all - i thought i would actually contribute something rather than simply leech WNBA picks.

i've done a write-up for this sunday's WEC event, which is being shown live on Versus. do bear in mind that i'm quite new to sports betting (i've played poker for a couple years but a little bored of it right now), and *relatively* new to mixed martial arts (been following it avidly for about 6 months now). therefore i'm probably here more to spark discussion rather than to provide the final word! i've done a tiny bit of line shopping, and the best line with the book is given. also should credit performify as his write-ups have been my introduction into mma betting, and so this bears not insignificant formal resemblance to his write-ups!

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This televised card seems to be serving as an 'introduction' for many fighters new to the WEC (Paulo Filho, Jeff Curran & Jamie Varner). However I think there's the potential for at least one upset, and the main event is extremely interesting.


WELTERWEIGHT TITLE
Carlos Condit (champion) +101 (PINNY) vs Brock Larson –105 (BODOG/BOOKMAKER)

Carlos Condit, the current WEC Welterweight Champion, is 23 years old, from Albuquerque NM and has a 20-4 MMA record dating back to 2002. He won the title by defeating John Alessio at WEC 26 in March, and this will be his first defence (he was scheduled to defend against Larson in June but suffered a separated shoulder and had to withdraw). He has experience in Pancrase (where he went 3-1, and was tipped to be given a title shot before moving to the WEC), Rumble on the Rock (where he first gained widespread recognition by defeating Frank Trigg) and a host of other minor U.S organisations. MMAWeekly.com currently rank him as the #10 Welterweight in the world.

Condit trains with the FIT-NHB team in his hometown of Alburquerque. In preparation for this fight he has also been training with Chris Lytle at the Integrated Fighting Academy – specifically to work on his wrestling skills. He has been lauded for his all-round ability, but his most dangerous skills are in his Muay Thai. He has extremely dangerous knees and elbows, and at 6’1 he is tall for the welterweight class which gives him a natural reach advantage. In Condit’s last fight with John Alessio, his striking, and knee strikes in particular, wore down his opponent and allowed Condit to sink in a rear-naked choke. Technically Condit is not astonishing, but he can be explosive and elusive – slipping out of submission and mounts when it has looked like his opponent has a definite advantage.

Brock Larson is 29 years old, from Brainerd MN and has a 21-1 MMA record also dating back to 2002. Like I mentioned earlier he was scheduled to take on Condit at the last WEC event in June, but after Condit suffered his injury he was matched against Chicago-native Kevin Knabjan (6-3-1) who got DESTROYED and KO’ed in under 30 seconds. Larson has two UFC appearances under his belt (a decision loss to Jon Fitch in Oct 2005 [his only career loss to date], and a decision victory over Keita Nakamura in Dec 2006), but most of his experience is on Minnesota & Wisconsin Extreme Challenge cards. When your only career loss is to Jon Fitch, then that is certainly a pretty impressive record. He is currently 2-0 in WEC.

Larson is the training partner of UFC Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk and, like Sherk, Larson is a very muscular guy for his weight class. He has previously fought at middleweight and walks around at 185-190lbs. He is a jiu-jitsu purple belt, but is also an excellent wrestler and uses his strength advantage well – frequently taking down and ground’n’pounding opponents towards victories. Only 2 of his past 10 fights have gone past the first round.

This is the closest match-up on the televised portion of the card. I’ve seen this match-up compared to Condit’s ROTR loss to Jake Shields (a fight that is readily available on the Internet). In this fight Shields easily takes down Condit several times over the course of three rounds, pins and pounds his way to a decision victory. In his last fight with Alessio, Condit was also taken down multiple times before catching him with strikes. I certainly think that Larson will be able to take Condit down whenever he wants to, and one can easily see this fight finishing with a takedown/ground’n’pound TKO. As his last fight with Knabjan showed Larson also has a lot of power on the feet so, if Condit does manage to avoid takedowns for an extended period of time, he is at no real disadvantage.

However, although Larson has got to be the favourite to win this one, I would not be at all surprised to see Condit deliver Larson’s second career loss. Condit is a dangerous striker, and could easily, and quickly, stun Larson on his feet and capitalise. I think Larson has a decent chin and won’t go down easily, but the possibility of a standing KO shouldn’t be discounted. Additionally, even if (and, let’s be frank, when) Larson takes Condit down the fight won’t be over by a long shot. Condit will be very difficult for Larson to keep pinned down, and he will continue to throw brutal elbows and knees from the guard position. Although I really doubt the fight will get that far, Condit also has excellent cardio (and has publicly said that he has focused on stamina for 5-round fights) and that could prove an advantage over Larson if we get into the later stages. However I expect this to be fast-paced and exciting, and probably won’t get past the second round.

The opening lines surprised me on this as I was expecting to make a play on Condit somewhere around +120-130, and wrote the above in preparation for such en eventuality. However Larson opened as the slight underdog, I got some cash down on him at +106 last night and, when I woke up this morning, he had moved to become the favourite. Therefore I still think there’s value in Larson until it moves to somewhere around -120.

Prediction: Larson TKO R2



MIDDLEWEIGHT TITLE
Paulo Filho -600 (BOOKMAKER) vs Joe Doerksen +581 (PINNY)

This is a bout for the currently vacant WEC Middleweight title. Both fighters are making their WEC debuts, but are familiar from other organisations.

Paulo Filho is 29 years old, is from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and sports a perfect 14-0 MMA record. Half of his wins are in the PRIDE Bushido series, and include impressive victories over Kazuo Misaki (who was fresh off a win over Dan Henderson), Ryo Chonan and Murilo ‘Ninja’ Rua. MMAWeekly.com currently rank him as the #3 Middleweight in the world. This will be his first fight in North America, and many have questioned the logic of Zuffa putting him in the WEC rather than sending him to the UFC. This will be Filho’s first fight since he suffered a knee injury during his victorious fight with Misaki last November (which forced him to withdraw from the finals of the Welterweight Grand Prix later that evening). He had to have minor knee surgery, but has reportedly been fit and ready since January of this year (it’s more likely that contract negotiations have led to him not competing in MMA in eight months).

Filho is a black belt in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu (under the tutelage of Carlson Gracie), and now trains with the Brazilian Top Team. He has also trained boxing with Josuel Distak, although he has publicly said that he is far less confident on his feet than he is on the ground.

Joe ‘El Dirte’ Doerksen is also 29 years old, is from Winnipeg Canada, and has a mammoth 39-9 MMA record. He’s been competing professionally in MMA since 1999, and is a veteran of the UFC, KOTC & IFL. He has notable wins over Denis Kang (Oct 2002), Chris Leben (May 2004) & Patrick Cote (April 2005), and his losses include major UFC names Matt Hughes (Nov 1999), Matt Lindland (Aug 2005) & Nate Marquardt (March 2006). Since his loss to Marquardt at UFC 58 Doerksen is currently riding a seven-fight win streak, collected in the IFL, DEEP and a handful of other more minor organisations. Despite having put together nice win streaks several times in his career, Doerksen doesn’t seem to have been able to deliver on the big stage and is 1-4 in the UFC. He said that, “I think I've always had the skill and experience, but I've often gone into big fights kind of on the fence about whether or not I want to be there or whether or not I belong there.”, although that sounds like the kind of generic, almost meaningless, thing that people say when they’ve no excuse for having lost a fight. He was most recently signed to a PRIDE contract, but in the great Zuffa shuffle has been moved to WEC.

Like Filho, Doerksen is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, however he too has concentrated on boxing training in the past. He even has a successful pro boxing match in his combat sports past. Sherdog has reported that Doerksen has spent ten days training with friend Jeremy Horn in preparation for this fight (Horn also cornered Doerksen at his last MMA fight for Gladiators Fighting Series in Winnipeg, a short-notice victory over BJ Lacy).

This seems to me to be a horrible fight for Doerksen, because he has no significant advantage over Filho in any area. His primary strength is on the ground, and this is shown by the fact that 31 of his 39 victories are by submission. He’s a tough guy (he did a decent job of preventing Marquardt from doing much on their ground in their fight) but he will be outclassed down there by Filho - who has already completely dominated fighters who are better wrestlers and ground technicians than Doerksen. Filho has fantastic takedowns, and excels at getting into a place where he can completely cut off his opponent’s offence from side control or mount position. In his fight against Misaki, Filho takes him down after about 80 seconds and then controls him (by pinning down his limbs, and taking frequent ground’n’pound shots) for the next 8 minutes, eventually managing to lock in an armbar for the submission. At no point of the fight does Filho genuinely look in trouble. Filho would have a more difficult test against a boxing or Muay Thai specialist (such as Anderson Silva), rather than a fighter whose primary strong point is their ground game. Although Doerksen does have some boxing experience, only very few of his numerous fights have finished by KO and the fact that he has been training with wrestler Horn, rather than a boxing specialist, suggests that stand-up isn’t the focus of his gameplan.

The only area where Doerksen has a slight advantage is experience. Doerksen is a UFC veteran, but Filho has never fought in a cage before. Filho trains with Brazilian Top Team, which would mean that he also has not been training in a cage (BTT veteran Minotauro recently trained at a rival camp for his UFC debut so he could train in a cage). This being said, I think this only gives a tiny advantage to Doerksen. Generally Filho’s recent opponents have been of a better calibre (Doerksen’s seven-fight win streak is comprised of several fighters with losing records, or with very few fights).

I imagine this will be quite a slow fight. Expect Filho to take Doerksen down as soon as he can in every round, and then either control him to grind out a decision victory or, if the opportunity arises (which it may not considering that Doerksen does have decent ground skills, if not good enough to defeat this opponent), lock in a submission. I guess it’s possible that WEC officials will be more inclined than those in PRIDE to stand the fighters up for inactivity, but Doerksen just isn’t enough of a stand-up fighter for that to be a significant advantage. The line is at where I expected it to be – but you can feel pretty safe bridgejumping this one in my opinion.

Prediction: Filho decision (or maybe a late submission)


FEATHERWEIGHT DIVISION
Jeff Curran –330 (BODOG) vs Stephen Ledbetter +326 (PINNY)

Jeff Curran, like almost everybody else it seems, is 29 years old, is from Crystal Lakes IL and has a 27-8-1 MMA record dating all the way back to 1998. He has one fight in the UFC (a loss to Matt Serra in January 2004), and one in PRIDE (a loss to Hatsu Hioki in August 2006). Curran has only lost one fight since March 2004 (the Hatsu Hioki fight), and is currently riding a five fight win streak. His record reads like a what’s what of MMA organisations – also taking in occasional fights with IFL, WEC, KOTC and Extreme Challenge but having no sustained run with any single organisation (probably because of there not really being a high-profile featherweight division in North America before WEC). It looks as if Curran, alongside Jens Pulver, is a veteran name who the WEC are bringing in to bolster the public profile of their featherweight division.

Curran is a black-belt in Gracie jiu-jitsu, and has won several jiu-jitsu and grappling tournaments. He is the head trainer at his own Team Curran gym in Crystal Lake, IL. He has also competed in professional boxing matches in the past, and has made striking a big part of his MMA skillset (in a fight with Wagnney Fabiano in Oct 2006, Fabiano was able to repeatedly take down Curran, and so it was Curran’s striking that won him the fight). I’ve also seen his losing fight against Kid Yamamoto in 2003, in which he is pretty much dominated but does manage to hurt Yamamoto in the latter end of the fight with some dangerous striking.

Stephen Ledbetter is 25 years old, is from Athens, GA and has a perfect 5-0 MMA record (2-0 professional record). 4 of his 5 fights have been in the Wild Bill’s Fight Night events, local to his native Georgia. In addition to his MMA victories, he has also successfully competed in amateur kickboxing, wrestling and grappling competitions. Ledbetter is a member of the Hardcore Gym Fight Team, based out of his hometown of Athens, GA, alongside UFC fighters Forrest Griffin & Rory Singer (I’ve read that Singer is his principal trainer). Unfortunately I haven’t really been able to find out a lot more about Ledbetter, or see any footage of him fighting. The results of his fights (3 x decisions, 2 x submissions), and specifically the lack of knockouts, suggest that he is more of a wrestler and submission artist than a striker – but that is pure speculation.

It really looks like Curran is being fed Ledbetter as an introduction to the WEC, however because of his respected fight team, coaches and good amateur background I wouldn’t dismiss Ledbetter out of hand. The line gives Ledbetter just under a 25% chance to win, which I think is about fair although if he becomes any more of a dog then I think it’s worth a small play on him.

Prediction: Ledbetter decision

LIGHTWEIGHT DIVISION
Sherron Leggett +236 (PINNY) vs Jamie Varner –250 (BOOKMAKER)

Winning the unusual nickname stakes for the evening, Sherron ‘Rob Roy’ Leggett is 28 years old, from Kenosha WI and has an MMA record of 13-3. He has one win in the WEC already (a second round TKO of KOTC veteran Charlie Kohler [7-4-1] in May, a fight he took on just 9 days notice), and most of his other fights have been in the Wisconsin-based Madtown Throwdown and Freestyle Combat Challenge organisations. He fought 8 times in 2006 (losing just 1 fight), and has already clocked up three victories out of three in 2007. He also won a NAGA Grappling Tournament back in May.

Leggett trains at Dave Strasser’s Freestyle Academy in Kenosha, Wisconsin – alongside TUF5 alumni Brian Geraghty. As his participation in amateur grappling tournaments suggests, his background is in wrestling although he is also a really dangerous striker. He mauled Kohler half-to-death in their WEC bout – punishing him with strikes from the ground, and also coming out on top in a standing battle at the beginning of round 2.

Jamie Varner is 22 years old, from Arizona and has an MMA record of 12-2. He is a veteran of the UFC, recording a loss against recent lightweight contender Hermes Franca at UFC 62 (many people have said that if the then-unknown Varner had not been caught in a submission at the end of the final round, he may have won a decision against Franca, who had come into the fight on short notice) and most recently a win over Jason Gilliam at UFC 68. The majority of his other fights are in the Arizona-based Rage in the Cage promotion. He is a charismatic fighter (I like his post-UFC 68 interview where Joe Rogan tells him that Gilliam gave him the finger before the fight, and Varner replies “I didn’t see that. I punched him in the face though.”), and recent interviews have shown him as unbelievably confident in his own ability. Varner trains at the Arizona Combat Sports facility, alongside Bodog fighter Ray Steinbeiss. He has a decorated amateur boxing and wrestling record - he has been a NCAA Division 1 ranked wrestler and a national boxing champion.

Like the Filho / Doerksen match-up, this again seems to be a really bad match-up for Leggett because his main strengths are also the main strengths of his opponent. I don’t think that Leggett is going to be able to take Varner down with any great ease. On the other hand Varner has excellent takedowns, and managed to take down Franca several times in their fight (and also took Gilliam down extremely quickly, and managed to sink in a rear-naked choke). The only way I can see this being a victory for Leggett is if he manages to connect a lucky strike, drop Varner temporarily and capitalise with ground ‘n’ pound for a TKO. However Varner is going to be excellent defensively on his feet, and is more likely to be able to score takedowns (even though he may lack the ground skills to fully capitalise).

I can see this being a really entertaining fight, and possibly one that goes to a three-round decision. Because of his superior ability overall, the longer this fight goes the more it favours Varner. I think that Leggett is going to come out swinging, but if he doesn’t manage to get a significant advantage, or finish the fight, in the first round then I think it’s Varner’s to win. If it does go to decision, then I think that Varner’s takedowns will win this fight for him. To vary things up a bit, I’ll say that Varner will get a submission, probably a rear naked choke, in R3. The line gives Varner just over a 70% chance of winning and, to be honest, I think his chances are probably higher than this – so I’ll be making a play on him as the favourite.

Prediction: Varner R3 submission

F.

[Performify]

Good writeup, always glad to see someone else stepping to the plate in this fashion.

FYI: [ QUOTE ]
many have questioned the logic of Zuffa putting him in the WEC rather than sending him to the UFC.

[/ QUOTE ]

Signing with the WEC was Filho's decision, not Zuffa's. With the thinness of the middleweight division, he doesn't want to swing in to the same weight class as his close friend Anderson Silva and have to face him in short order -- so he's going to take over the WEC and will only make a move to the UFC if they get a bit more depth in their middleweight division.

I think its a great move. The WEC is gaining a lot of viewers and Filho will be well marketed as their middleweight champ. When he finally makes the jump, it will be for an even bigger payday, and hopefully he'll have someone to fight besides The Spider.

-P

[DannyOcean_]

I have several comments about this, which was a good write up.

The first is that I echo the sentiment of Larson being the favorite. Condit has showen himself very vulenrable to takedowns in the past, and I think that larson's takedowns are much better than what Condit has seen before. Although i like condit, it's hard to pick him when it looks like his opponent will control the pace of the fight from the get go. Congrats on getting Larson at + numbers, good value there. I'd take larson up to -130 or -135, a little farther than you, simply based on the fact that he is 90%+ likely to control the pace of the whole fight with takedowns.

I have met and watched Stephen Ledbetter train, and am a complete homer for the HardCoreGym in Athens (I train there, we actually just got ATT affiliated, represent son). So keep that in mind. Stephen Ledbetter is a really impressive wrestler. He's pretty unknown, but his style involves very good takedowns, and then GnP. His MMA wrestling is the strongest part of his game, imo.

Adam Singer (Rory's brother and a Brown Belt) is the prinicpal trainer at the HCG. Rory is actively involved as well. Basically, those two are the main guys (as they co-own the place), but there is also kind of an atmosphere of everybody helps everybody when it's training time. About 8+ pros fight out of HCG, 5 of which are at the 'big time' in their divisions. Rory (UFC MW), Forrest (UFC LHW), Carmelo Merrero (UFC LHW), Ledbetter (145 WEC), and Brian Bowles (135 WEC). Btw, if anyone is in NorthEast GA, this is the best MMA school anywhere, come check it out.

Stephen by GnP TKO is my prediction, but i'm also never gonna predict him to lose. I think he'll do extremely well in his debut, and think he can be a real force in the division.

WAR LEDBETTER!

[freck]

Thanks for the kind words guys.
[ QUOTE ]
I think its a great move. The WEC is gaining a lot of viewers and Filho will be well marketed as their middleweight champ. When he finally makes the jump, it will be for an even bigger payday, and hopefully he'll have someone to fight besides The Spider.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it definitely makes sense. I've seen conflicting reports about this (I think there was one on the Junkie yesterday, quoting a CBS interview, in which Filho said he was offered just WEC, but then I've also read him saying elsewhere that he just doesn't want to fight Silva like you've said). Either way, it's a coup for the WEC and it definitely piques my interest in the promotion.

[ QUOTE ]
I have met and watched Stephen Ledbetter train, and am a complete homer for the HardCoreGym in Athens (I train there, we actually just got ATT affiliated, represent son).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for all of this. I'm excited to watch him fight, and feel that he definitely has a better chance than most other analyses are giving him. I've seen more than one prediction for Curran based entirely on 'Ledbetter has never fought big time before', and the line reflects that. I think he's got a far better chance of pulling out an upset than Leggett has in his fight against Curran.

[Performify]

Yeah we went and did a little more digging once you brought it up here. After I posted my opinion i thought about it and said, you know what, lets see if we can find out exactly whats up.

Our good friend Sam Caplan did the legwork and we dropped the story you mention here:
http://ufcjunkie.com/2007/08/03/repo...snt-an-option/

[trixtrix]

will filho pass both pre/post drug screenings?

YES -140
NO +110

[DannyOcean_]

[ QUOTE ]
will filho pass both pre/post drug screenings?

YES -140
NO +110

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this real?

Without inside information, why would they possibly expect him to fail a drug test this often? Does he have a history i'm not aware of?

Basically, WTF? this looks like actual, free money...

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
will filho pass both pre/post drug screenings?

YES -140
NO +110

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this real?

Without inside information, why would they possibly expect him to fail a drug test this often? Does he have a history i'm not aware of?

Basically, WTF? this looks like actual, free money...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, Filho's only 2 inches taller than Sherk and walks around at 20 pounds more than Sherk, and Sherk is a juicer, so Filho must be a juicer. QED.

[trixtrix]

the fair line for filho on anabolics is prolly somewhere around -9900..

whether he gets caught or not is dependent mostly on the ability of his masking agent and desire/motivation of the sanctioning body

[DannyOcean_]

Although Ledbetter lost, i was really impressed by his showing. He's clearly got talent, and he needs to develop a little more i guess, but i can see him becoming a big part of the picture at 145. I predicted him to win by GnP, which he was very close to doing. Subtract that one hit in Rd. 1 and add a little 'pound' to his GnP in Rd 1 or Rd 3 and he's looking at a win, imo. We'll see him again.

also, condit looks more and more like nick diaz. Which is a good thing. Tall, lanky, great striking, and sick twister flexibility on the bottom. Both he and Diaz have pulled off big victories over wrestlers from the bottom. I want this kid in the UFC.