blind defense with 33

[londomollari]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we need to bet this turn don't we?


[/ QUOTE ]

This is turning your hand strength face-up, unless you balance it by weird playing your bigger hands. He is probably some of the time going to take freecards with QJ/QT/JT and going to bet with his Ace hi hands since the pot is small let him keep the lead to induce a pot.

[Bruce D]

I don't care now if villian 'knows' I have any hand. I want to win the pot now rather than face a tough decision on the end.

There are not too many river cards that I am going to be happy about calling a bet to. Are you calling a river bet when he continues to bet his A high holding? My problem is that no matter what card comes on the river, unless it's a three, I am pretty much behind when he puts in a bet unless he is bluffing. I can't know if he's bluffing, so now I have to call. At no point do we have a MUCH greater than 50 percent equity in the hand except when a 3 comes off. As cards 8 and higher come off (except for the 9 and the K) our equity starts to drop to one third and less.

When a 2 comes off we have 47% equity vs his range
When a 3 comes off we have 93% equity vs his range
When a 4 comes off we have 50% equity
When a 5 comes off we have 50% equity
When a 6 comes off we have 46% equity
When a 7 comes off we have 45% equity
When an 8 comes off we have 36% equity
When a 9 comes off we have 52% equity
When a T comes off we have 33% equity
When a J comes off we have 33% equity
When a Q comes off we have 33% equity
When a K comes off we have 53% equity and finally
When an A comes off we have 25% equity

So if this guy likes to 3 barrel bluff even with A high, we have to fold if we become calling stations or selectively call when a 4,5,9, or a K drop on the river.

I think it's much better for us if we take his initiative away anyway.

Does this sound right?

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't care now if villian 'knows' I have any hand. I want to win the pot now rather than face a tough decision on the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I knew you had 33 here I have a profitable semibluff with basically my entire range.

In a vacuum there's nothing terribly wrong with your c/c, b/f line. Hell, it sounds like it's the perfect line against a robotic opponent. It's just that it's the easiest line for your opponent to guess the proper counterstrategy to.

Now if your plan is to b/c the turn and you have data/significant experience that it's profitable, then maybe you're on to something.