Bluffing

[members_only]

Villain seems competent and aggressive over small sample size. He 3-bet me once bvb and I folded. I have done nothing out of the ordinary.

By my calculations I am betting $33 to win $22, so this has to work 60% of the time to break even. (Not taking into account any equity I might have against his calling range, which presumably isn't much.)

What do you guys think?

(Apologies for self-converted HH, that website that does ipoker isn't working today.)

GAME #711779184: Texas Hold'em NL $0.25/$0.50 2007-11-05 18:29:56
Table Kloof
Seat 3: freroll ($9.25 in chips)
Seat 5: vict75 ($50.35 in chips)
Seat 6: Hamara ($50.35 in chips) DEALER
Seat 8: HERO ($85.62 in chips)
Seat 10: VILLAIN ($49.70 in chips)
HERO: Post SB $0.25
VILLAIN: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
freroll: Fold
vict75: Fold
Hamara: Fold
HERO: Raise to $1.75
VILLAIN: Call $1.25
*** FLOP *** [5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
HERO: Check
VILLAIN: Check
*** TURN *** [2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
HERO: Bet $3.00
VILLAIN: Raise to $15.00
HERO: Raise to $63.00 (VILLAIN has $33 behind)

[Profish2285]

This is one of those hands where unless I am at the table to see dynamics and villain, it looks like spew. Obviously you had some type of read to try to do this, or I hope you did at least. But without some real read or idea of how this guy plays, it obviously looks terrible.

[members_only]

Why? What are you putting him on?

[Profish2285]

Anything really, a set, tptk, a straight. You think he makes this move with air? I think the other question is does he fold top pair, because if the answer is no then this is definitely horrible.

[bozzer]

i think i make this move with air a lot.

[Profish2285]

Well you know what youre doing, does villain do this with air? I think thats important to know along with the other question, no?

[bknollenberg]

i only make that move if i really know the table. members_only, what did you put him on? obviously total air or weak pair / draw, but this is a huge spew unless you have specific reads.

[members_only]

[ QUOTE ]
members_only, what did you put him on? obviously total air or weak pair/draw

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he could be semi-bluffing with a flush draw a lot. He isn't really repping anything apart from maybe 43. Also, I think I'm not really repping a lot with my turn bet, which would make him more likely to bluff. Really I just thought [censored] you, you don't have anything most of the time here. I don't know if that's reasonable or not.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i make this move with air a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wrote this just before i hopped into bed last night, and i think it's wrong. i do think i am likely to raise turn with lots of drawy stuff that has some chance to improve, and i am very unlikely to have a strong hand here.

i think hero stands to take this down pretty often, but 60% is a tall order imo.

[fees]

You don't really represent anything here, this is def not a good bluff. Unless he has a history of being very weak or he knows you can show up with 55 here, you need to toss this hand. TBH just bet the flop