5/10 You get re-raised preflop with 44. +EV to call or no?

[Equal]

At first this seems like a simple micro-stakes question but there's more to it.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1530.80
UTG+1: $1000
Hero: $3861.75
Button: $5267
SB: $1463
BB: $3468

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $40</font>, Hero calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $300</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero ???

BB is "twin-caracas" a good winning regular in the high NL games on Stars. We are 345bb deep, and I have position. It's 260 to call or 7.5% of my stack (conveniently right in the middle of the 5/100 rule).

I would imagine that he knows that if I call his large re-raise that a small-to-mid pocket pair is most of my range. And we are super deep, so it's not like a very good high stakes NL player is going to stack off for 350bb with aces on a rag rainbow flop. However, we do have position on him and thus can squeeze more value out of him post-flop.

I've been playing straight-up but won a couple big pots. He's been playing pretty aggressively pre-flop and on the flop.

Some simple math - 7.5 to 1 to flop a set... means we need to win 7.5 times $260 on average = $1950. Minus the $380 already in there, and a $4-500 continuation bet we expect to at least get out of him, can we expect to make ~$1100 on average over and above the pre-flop and flop continuation bet money?

Is this call +EV?

[Bigfoot]

I would fold vs. Twin. His RR range there is huge and I don't think he's stacking off light (for 350bb) unless you have the right image.

[ddubois]

He's probably not jacking it up from 40 to 300 with a "huge" range.

[BobboFitos]

i think you sould fold bc this is a squeeze alot.. is twin really a winning player&gt;? alot of data supports the opposite conclusion

[PerDoom]

Sometimes when you flop sets against an overpair, you lose. Sometimes when you flop sets, people flop oversets. Sometimes when you flop a set, people don't go broke. So, no you don't expect to win in this scenario.

[Snygaard]

I call in spots like this all the time, with up to 10% of my stack if I've got position postflop. Major leak?

[KRANTZ]

lol fold vs twin? you have to be absolutely crazy to fold this this deep. he will stack off for 2000bb against anyone with any image if he's in the right mood, which he typically is.

[Boquense]

Twin is not a winning player, and will stack off 300 bbs deep with an ignorant end gutshot. You must call here.

[Reef]

you easily have odds for a set if nothing else vs twin

[TheWorstPlayer]

push, ur never behind.