You push? i can afford 1 buy in - party 3/6

[mj12]

alright looks like the concensus is a fold. well I called, here is my reasoning let me know if its off: firstly villain failed to isolate the fish meaning his range shifts away from strong hands and more to weaker hands which he will try to outplay villain with. Then he calls nearly 10% of his stack against a guy who has been reraising regularly and has a good spot to squeeze which means he is more likely calling to make a move then for value. So i am expecting him to be calling light and looking to make a move. Then he pushes flop well there was the move i was expecting.

And i was right he did call me very loosely, Q10 loosely [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[FireStorm]

Fold, you're never ever wayyyyy ahead.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold here, I also prob check flop

[/ QUOTE ]

why would you check this flop? I probably bet the flop and then make a decision if villain raises... checking because you fear (or know what actually happened) isnt necessarily right

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
My best estimate is: 85% flipping 15% of the time hurting.

I'd fold however.

[/ QUOTE ]

if we're flipping we have a slight advantage given Js and if we're behind 77 we have 3str and 4flu, so about 14% or so.

by your estimation (406 to win ~1202, need 33.7% eq)
15% @ 15% (.0225)
85% @ 55% (.4675)
=49%

we have the right odds to call.

if you ever throw in a bluff or like JT (which is a ~kinda bluff) this is a pretty auto call.

personally i dont think that range (semibluff or 77) is really fair, especially with what hero says about his own image and villains, but its a toss up. (dont mind call or fold)