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#1
11-19-2007, 11:58 PM
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if we go into a recession or bear market
will that bring down other global markets as well? im thinking of buying some kind of emerging market etf but is it dependent on the U.S. economy? should i wait or buy into this correction
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#2
11-20-2007, 04:28 AM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
International equities are highly correlated to US markets. Small international/emerging are slightly less correlated.
The best diversifiers of an equity portfolio are: CCFs (negative correlation to stocks with medium returns) TIPS (negative correlation to stocks with low returns) REITs (low to middling correlation with stocks with medium/high returns)
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#3
11-20-2007, 09:35 AM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
Would you tell me before hand when the bear market is starting. Also tell me when before the recession starts too. At least tell me as early as possible. I mean if the market goes down 20% that would be too late.
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#4
11-20-2007, 10:18 AM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
[ QUOTE ]
Would you tell me before hand when the bear market is starting. Also tell me when before the recession starts too. At least tell me as early as possible. I mean if the market goes down 20% that would be too late. [/ QUOTE ] I want my email on this newsletter too, please.
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#6
11-20-2007, 07:05 PM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
[ QUOTE ]
TIPS are treasury inflation protected securities; REITs are real estate trusts, but what are CCFs? [/ QUOTE ] collateralized commodity funds. they are deleveraged (i.e. cash holding) futures investment vehicles that try to take advantage of the backwardation in commodity markets. they have had very strong historical correlational benefits to typical asset classes (except TIPS where they are still not strongly postively correlated). their future expected correlation also is likely negative to those same asset classes. the deleveraging (holding cash as well as futures) reduces the overall volatilty since commodities are highly volatile. Barron
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#7
11-21-2007, 03:26 AM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
I just put all my money basically in one stock: ESV. I figure it really cant get any cheaper than it currently is or the company will issue a massive share buyback. Regardless of how the market does.
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#9
11-21-2007, 02:26 PM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
Just some quick T/A on ESV Spino1i:
Firts of all...any reason why you would put your WHOLE portfolio at risk in ONE stock? From a T/A perspective.....I just took a quick look at some charts I am able to post...as MY trading software doesnt allow me to copy and paste links.I already knew it was in the oil drilling biz,but I am not up to date on its current fundamentals.it looks like its trying to TEST holding its recent lows.....but unless it HOLDS this recent test in the $52+ area....it looks like the next stop might/will be the $45 dollar range [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:s...ource=undefined However ...the 2 T/A positives ...are that "hanging man" candlestick LOW it made on August 16th that I treat as one of the more reliable candlestick patterns,and it is also currently EXTREMELY oversold on a S/T basis Also from a PURE contrarian POV..it is also due for some sort of decent bounce...again S/T http://www.traderslog.com/Hammer.htm If it holds that LOW...you should be OK at least short term,but I would keep a TIGHT leash on this IMO The market from the long side ....SUCKS right now. I hope you havnt been caught in the ole' averaging DOWN mentality....or PLEASE explain your thought process here and maybe I can help you out? GL, Stephen [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] Disclaimer: I have currently been short MANY equities...LONG bonds....and also holding a large percentage of CASH on the sidelines at this time.I "think/hope" we are near at least a S/T bottom,and would like to see some sort of capitulation type sell-off before going LONG....as currently EVERY decent rally is being sold into,as we are CONSTANTLY making lower lows each day. With market sentiment/bearishness at bigtime LOWS,as well as extreme PUT buying/short postions still being opened NOW..... a violent parabolic Santa Clause year end rally would not surprise me one bit either....esp for the various/obviously standard market manager related issues
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#10
11-21-2007, 04:57 PM
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Re: if we go into a recession or bear market
dcifer where do you have your money right now?
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