God I hate AQ

[Dave D]

On the flop, hero calls and the other villian left to act folds.

Ok so here comes the turn:

8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villian bets 36k. If I call I'm all in.

[Stumpy]

Tackleberry,

You're butchering my beautiful math. You can't just divide by 4.

The 1,8,6,3 numbers in parenthesis are the hand combinations.
If you have AQ, and an A flops, there's exactly 1 AA combo, 8 AK combos, etc.
So there are 18 total hands. To get the average you divide by 18.

So my answer is (1*Line1 + 8*Line2 + 6*Line3 + 3*Line4) / (1+8+6+3)

I've just noticed there's a slight error in the QQ,KK lines, I had the potsize off when I first typed it, then fixed the equations but not the results.
So Line3 and Line4 should be +5.4k each.

It's standard to weight each hand with an additional factor, as you have.
Personally I think your weights are very far off, but if you want to use them (and corrected to 5.4k) the result would be -1.5k.

[JoeyJoJo Shabadu]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually just switch off when I see long reels of maths, but I actually read this and I have to say Stumpy did kind of own this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

And what if Villian 1 flat calls and draws out on both us and villian 2? Pos sucks here becasue I feel squeezed. I don't like giving V1 odds to call any draw by calling ourselves. Therefore I don't like calling. I really wanna shove my chips in. Maybe it's just me. (I'm ignoring all prf discussion as that's not what we're talking about here).

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
However, I think it's safe to say a C-Bet is nearly guaranteed, even though when we hit an A, he's behind at least 50% of the time.

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So what happens when he only c-bets when we he hits the flop(i.e. hits trips, TPTK)? I mean, there is no way I c-bet an A high flop with KK or QQ into two opponents who have already committed (in terms of stack/pot sizes). I'd check fold and be happy that I still have some chips left.

So if he only c-bets AA and AK and check fold KK & QQ then what happens? Just to be clear, I am asking earnestly b/c I still am not sure what you are doing mathwise.

On that note,

[ QUOTE ]
That C-Bet plus all the money in the pot preflop combine to make calling in the hopes of hitting an A, trips, or a straight OK.

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I'd throw two pair in there as well, but throw out the implied odds of TP. He isn't c-betting with hands that can't beat any TP hand we make. So we need to know:

1) What is the prob. that we make TP and he check folds.
2) What is the prob. that we flop two-pair or better and he stacks off? Remember, if he has QQ-KK he isn't paying off on flops that contain an A unless he has trips or better.

So we win the current pot in #1 that percentage of the time. In #2, we win only the pot some % of the time, we get his whole stack some % of the time, and he gets our stack some % of the time.

Again, I don't really understand what you are doing with the math, but it seems that you are making a very complicated math problem way too simple by making some assumptions, like that he c-bets every flop or that he moves in every flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Finally, we're not very deep here. That is a major reason we can play AQ here and not get crushed.
The pot is so big compared to our stack there is no reaonable range of hands we can't play against.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense and I understand why.

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Not knowing how to proceed when you call doesn't make calling wrong.

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It is wrong if it will put you to a tough decision in which you are likely to make a -EV move.

Thanks Stumpy, I know you are busy and this is a lot of work. I just want to get it right, as I am sure you do.

Sherman

[Stumpy]

[ QUOTE ]
Stumpy,

I'm too lazy/don't have time to go through your math, but I assume you fold to a river bet as well if you call flop and turn goes check-check?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would definitely bet the river if checked to twice.
I also claimed I'd bet the turn if he checked a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to me.
I don't entirely know what to do on the river. We only have to be ahead 25% of the time to call.

The numbers I gave were based on folding to a turn bet, and assuming we at least broke even on any river action. The math is mostly an attempt to look at a simple general result for a hand range and action. It's obviously only as good as the assumptions. I don't play enough to be very confident in my player generalizations. The obvious problem is some players do this with only AA, and others would with TT+,AK, and a rare few think this is a cool move. I've certainly seen people doing it with TT+,AK in $10 tournaments more than once.

I pretty much use myself (hopefully usually my earlier self) as the moron model.
Maybe everyone does, and we're just posting which way we'd have butchered this hand.
But based on that I tend to characterize unknowns as moderately aggressive by default.
I see a C-Bet as nearly automatic with his full range. Other people deeply disagree.

C-Betting here is pretty ugly when you really look at it, but it is very hard to not continue when you've finally gotten a hand like QQ or KK. Particularly when you look at it from the standpoint of the player who thinks QQ+ are such strong hands that you shold make this stupid PFRR to suck in your opponents.

Being as short as we are, he needs to keep betting with QQ-KK 50% of the time to make calling a turn bet good.
I'm really unsure if that's reasonable or not. I think it's close.

Again, using myself as the idiot, with the given 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn, I would now be inclined to call, because any pair with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is likely to try and push you out. We've got two big non spades, so more than half his range is spades.

If calling a turn bet is borderline, I'd say calling the river is less so.

I know none of that answers anything.

[Stumpy]

Sherman,

I am obviously simplifying things in the numbers I ran. I'm trying not to remove anything too essential though. Clearly there are cases like flopping trips that are great for us. I think for the most part there are an equal number of terrible cases. All of these events are rare though (trip Qs = 0.5%), so it's kind of safe to assume they balance out. Again, since we're not very deep, running top two into a set doesn't really lose you that much more than any other kind of bad flop for you.

I only made the comment about him shoving every flop because I thought you'd asked what if he did.

I think you understand all this, but, to quickly explain what my numbers are:

I gave Villain the range QQ+,AK.

My rules were we called the flop bet with an A, fold otherwise.
If he bet the turn again, we'd fold.
I assumed he always C-Bet, but only bet the turn with AK,AA.

The odds an A hits varies based on which hand in his range he actually has.
AA leaves just 1 in the deck, so the odds are 1-(47*46*45)/(48*47*46), or 6.25%.
This helps protect us from getting into more trouble against AA and AK.
The chances of flopping an A just aren't that likely when he's got one too.

Once an A hits, the number of hands that crush us are so few that any reasonable preflop range is mostly hands we beat. It's kind of like your "Checking to change your opponent's hand" post. As soon as the A hits, 2AA and 4AK disappear from his range.

I keep saying reasonable though. KK+,AK is not reasonable I think, because he'd do it with QQ too.
For a KK+ range, suddenly we're ahead of 6/7 hands of his.

If he plays very conservatively then calling his flop bet is not a good play.
I still think calling preflop is though. I'll try to look at it tonight or tomorrow.
We really can't find the optimal play against him, because we know so little about him.
But we should be able to find the best average play.

[KidSensation]

^^^Absolutely loving Stumpy's posts.^^^ Learning a lot from the math discussion in this thread as well. Thanks guys...keep up the GREAT work.

[chieftain08]

Villain obviously has KK and is continuation betting a pf raise that he made naturally with kings hoping to scare you off your QQ-, KJ, QJ etc

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain obviously has KK and is continuation betting a pf raise that he made naturally with kings hoping to scare you off your QQ-, KJ, QJ etc which is absolutely terrible b/c there is no value in betting this flop with KK as you only get called by better hands and make worse hand fold

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

[The Fox]

fold PF