Conjecture and Question

[Cactus Jack]

I remember when this thread first came up. I didn't get it then, and really don't get it now. A lot of thought has gone into the replies of many.

Why?

I know I'm not very bright, and numbers isn't my bag, but to what purpose is even trying to figure out an answer? (Never understood the purpose of climbing Everest, either, but that's as close as some of the analogies I've read that make my hair hurt.)

Has anyone EVER won a tournament based on their EV before it began? If someone has a huge +EV before the tournament, should I be scared?

[flub]

This may have been mentioned, but following the doubling chips = double expectations if you won all the chips what would your expectation be according to the formula? It seems your expectation would quickly be more then it's possible to win.

-f

[Jdanz]

How did Richas not get more response?

just looking at other players EV rather than your own was a great inuitive leap.

The rest of the post is just gravy. I mean clearly he's wrong about how much it matters to you about which guy you knocked out, but it's pretty clear proof that there are distinctly non-linear relationships between chips/EV/skill.

[0evg0]

WTF

[Jdanz]

Why the bump? i know everyone has seen it, but i think we have a lot more to talk about.

[Richas]

[ QUOTE ]
I remember when this thread first came up. I didn't get it then, and really don't get it now. A lot of thought has gone into the replies of many.

Why?



[/ QUOTE ]

because if the chips are of a different value depending upon who has them then this should affect how you bet.

We can see this when the big stack is happy to call with rubbish as the consequences of losing to a 10bb push are so low compared to wiping the guy out and building the stack with the 10bb and the dead money.

That is later on but if the chips have differing values at the begining when everyone has the same number it could be that it is right to call the push from the best player in the tournie and take the coin flip but absolutely wrong for you to call a similar push if you are the best/better player.

Once the chips are in the middle they don't belong to either the good or bad player involved in the hand. The expected value they represent is different again. When the best player pushes pre flop and is called the extra ev in the chips he owns has changed, each chip is worth the same as the worst player in the world with the same hand it is only when the hand is resolved that the ev is known as either 0 or what the pot is worth in your stack.

[TaintedRogue]

I do not believe you can use a math model to determine if your expectation is more/less than double.
If you are a good player, who, when the *correct* odds of you placing in the top 3 of an event are X, you MUST increase your stack size as the tournament progresses, in order to retain that X expectation, just like everyone else has to increase their stacks.
There will be aberrations in the growth of your stack and the extremities of those aberrations will cause a temporal adjustment of X.
There is an IMMEDIATE and DEFINITIVE increase in table command, when the best player at the table, doubles his chips on the 1st hand.
When that situation occurs, the last thing on the player's mind: How much did doubling up just now, increase my X?

I may be simple minded........however..........I do not believe that MATH can be used to determine the odds of one's ability to place in the money when there are so many variables involved in a tournament.

[TaintedRogue]

[ QUOTE ]
I conclude that the one factor model (chips only) is inadequate to estimate EV, since we know a great players EV is about his/her long run ROI: lets say $40K.

If the EV of T10,000 starting chips must be below $1300 for any player, then other aspects such as skill, etc must comprise the remaining ~$40K. Some skills may be based on the quanitity of chips, but the main conclusion is still that doubling the stack size early does not affect EV that much. A first order affect on the additional EV of chips alone would be an increase of less than $1300 for T20,000.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that if Raymer, or any other intelligent pro, doubles his chips on the 1st hand, at a table of average players, that his EV increases by more, because his command of the table increases by more. I would think it would be less, only if he has stiff competition at his table.

[TaintedRogue]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Everyone:

I have a conjecture that I believe is true and I have reasons for believing that this is true. But I'm hoping that others can explain the reasons a little better than I can, or perhaps explain why my conjecture is wrong. Here it is:

Suppose you are a great tournament player. Perhaps one of the best. You enter a $10,000 buy-in tournament and when the first hand is dealt, since you're such a great player your expectation is $40,000 even though you only have $10,000 in tournament chips. Now a very unusual first hand takes place and you double up. That is you now have $20,000 in tournament chips. My conjecture is that your expectation does not double even though your chip count has. So instead of having an expectation of $80,000 it may only be $78,000, or $75,000, or some other number less than $80,000, but it will definitely be less than $80,000.

So if my conjecture is correct, I would like to hear good reasons why this is the case. If it's not correct, I want to hear those reasons as well.

This should make for a good discussion and thanks in advance for the help.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I see that this was a trick question! You're asserting that the player expects to win $40,000.00 in the event.
You are saying he has $10,000.00 in tournament chips because that is what he paid for the T10,000.
It's obvious that everytime he doubles his chip count, his expected winnings is not going to double......even if he takes 1st place with all of the chips, he isn't going to get all of the money...........

All of those posts........in an attempt to make a trick question a logical one.

[J19R60B27]

The total expectation of the entire tournament is $40K. The fact that you double the first time on the first hand instead of the 50th hand actually lessens you expectation for the entire tournament because as a better player you would be expected to have more chips to double with on a later hand.