NFL team O/U wins - my top 3 picks

[NajdorfDefense]

How much are you putting on the Over at +130?
Does the fact that the market has the over at +120/+130 make you feel differently about your analysis?

What do you think their NFC East record will be?

No Derrick Dockery, no depth on D, Springs is always hurt, Smoot stinx and they have one good WR.

I don't think Jason C can turn into an avg NFL QB in his first full-year as a starter. That's the risk I'm taking. I am already assuming Portis is back at 100%, if not then I like my bet even more.

[bigt2k4]

Jason Campbell was a waste of a 1st rnd draft choice. All of his success in college, which wasn't that much was because of teams playing 8 and someties 9 in the box to stop Brown and Williams.

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
Jason Campbell was a waste of a 1st rnd draft choice. All of his success in college, which wasn't that much was because of teams playing 8 and someties 9 in the box to stop Brown and Williams.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take FO's remarkably accurate QB college predicator over your post.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Jason Campbell was a waste of a 1st rnd draft choice. All of his success in college, which wasn't that much was because of teams playing 8 and someties 9 in the box to stop Brown and Williams.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take FO's remarkably accurate QB college predicator over your post.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes up for the Joba/Hughes hate. I'll accept this as a peace offering of sorts between you and rationality.

[Vyse]

I hate Joba and Hughes?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate Joba and Hughes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Or have mad man-love for Teix/Gagne?

[Vyse]

Your reading comprehension really sucked if those are the conclusions you came up with.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
No Derrick Dockery, no depth on D, Springs is always hurt, Smoot stinx and they have one good WR.

I don't think Jason C can turn into an avg NFL QB in his first full-year as a starter. That's the risk I'm taking. I am already assuming Portis is back at 100%, if not then I like my bet even more.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think Cambell could be fine. He has looked good throughout mini-camp and he was brought along smart. He understands the system well.

However, the whispers out of Skins training camp is that Portis is not 100%. Betts should be able to pick up the load until Portis is healthy.

The secondary is very week. They added another big hitting, poor coverage safety and Fred Smoot who they were delighted to get rid of when he was in his prime.

I still think if they get some positive varience and are able to get turnovers and avoid turning the ball over they could be over 7.5. I would say 11:9 they hit the under.

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
How much are you putting on the Over at +130?
Does the fact that the market has the over at +120/+130 make you feel differently about your analysis?

What do you think their NFC East record will be?

No Derrick Dockery, no depth on D, Springs is always hurt, Smoot stinx and they have one good WR.

I don't think Jason C can turn into an avg NFL QB in his first full-year as a starter. That's the risk I'm taking. I am already assuming Portis is back at 100%, if not then I like my bet even more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't put anything down yet, because I figure the line will continue to move in my favor, and at worse stay where it is. The +120/+130 obv. makes me like the over more, but this still has plenty of value if it were even. When I bet season overs, I usually don't make the wagers until at least the middle of preseason just to insure there isn't a catastrophic injury.

The biggest question on offense is Wade at G, imo. And btw, Samuels just went down in practice and looks like he'll be out for a month with an MCL sprain. He should be ready for the regular season, and they're keeping Wade at G in the meantime and having Fabini replace CS. If he was out for the year then that would almost certainly gurantee a 6 win season. This is where I'm most worried about their depth, the oline.

I expect the Skins to go at least 3-3, and probably 4-2 in the nfc east. They could easily sweep the giants, who I expect to be a trainwreck this season. They play @ nyg in week 15, and it's very possible that the gmen will have thrown in the towel on their season at that point. Their week 2 game @philly is much more winnable than usual, since McNabb won't be 100%. In fact, if you look at all of the skins road games, aside from New England, all of them are winnable (although they'll obv. be dogs in most of them).

My opinion on Smoot differs from yours. He was never a good fit in Minny, and never "felt comfortable," in his own words. He was very good when he was w/Wash. before, and I expect him to return to at least near that level of play.

I'm pretty high on Campbell. He looked really good last year getting his first experience in the league. What you saw out of him last year is his floor, and I expect him to be significantly improved. I've heard better reports about him this offseason than other young qb's like Smith, Cutler, Leinart, etc., and now the offense will be able to take full advantage of Moss. Cooley is a top 5 te, and Randle El/Lloyd will be much more effective in the offense this year. People underestimate how wretched Brunell was last season. Portis is 100% last I heard.

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No Derrick Dockery, no depth on D, Springs is always hurt, Smoot stinx and they have one good WR.

I don't think Jason C can turn into an avg NFL QB in his first full-year as a starter. That's the risk I'm taking. I am already assuming Portis is back at 100%, if not then I like my bet even more.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think Cambell could be fine. He has looked good throughout mini-camp and he was brought along smart. He understands the system well.

However, the whispers out of Skins training camp is that Portis is not 100%. Betts should be able to pick up the load until Portis is healthy.

The secondary is very week. They added another big hitting, poor coverage safety and Fred Smoot who they were delighted to get rid of when he was in his prime.

I still think if they get some positive varience and are able to get turnovers and avoid turning the ball over they could be over 7.5. I would say 11:9 they hit the under.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are these whispers you've heard of about Portis? I haven't heard anything but positive news, saying he's fully recovered from knee tendonitis that affected him earlier this summer. In fact, he supposedly has been running his standard sprint times. Or are you hearing something new about his shoulder?