NL25: K6s, top pair+FD

[gladbach]

villian 33/25/2 on 20 hands

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $16.00
Hero (BB): $25.15
UTG: $25.60
UTG+1: $30.80
MP1: $28.95
MP2: $25.00
CO: $9.80
BTN: $12.80

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, 5 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.75</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $2.00</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $10.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $24.90</font>, UTG calls $14.40

Turn: ($50.55) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($50.55) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $50.55 ($2.50 Rake)

[Albert Moulton]

Generally TP+FD is best played aggressively on the flop vs a guy who you suspect has an overpair or a top-pair hand. In those situations, you have fold equity + a small edge in hand equity if you both get all-in on the flop. A hand like that is usually the result of a villain's EP raise and you're LP call with a hand like ATs or some such.

In this case, however, villain has a 25% PFR, so he would have open raised with AK, AQ, AJ, AT, TT-AA, and probably KQx, KJs, and QJs. So, what is he so excited about on this flop? On the flop, it looks like 33 and maybe 88, or even K8s or Ah2h/Ah4h/Ah5h/Ah7h/Ah9h. Vs that range you you have 45% equity. But his reraise to 10.5 looks more like a set or 2-pair. Vs that range you have 31% equity (7:3 or about 2.3:1). The pot is now $19.5 an you can either call $5 (~4:1 pot odds with a decent chance of getting the remaining 14.4 if you spike a flush on the turn), or raise 19.4 more with no fold equity (giving you a chance to win a total of 31.15, or 1.6:1 pot odds). So, if my range is right, then call the raise to 10.5, then push if you spike a flush that doesn't pair the board, and fold if you miss or the board pairs and villain pushes the turn.

Now, if you include KQ, KJ, and a couple of hands like Ah4h in villain's range, which perhaps you should, you are about 43% equity (a little better than 3:2 or 1.5:1), making a push a slightly positive EV move.

So, what range do you put him on? If it's wider than sets and 2-pairs, than push is good. If it's sets and 2-pairs, then call/push if you improve or call/fold if you don't is probably better. A fold might be close to correct, as well, since you can't rely on all 9 flush outs and villain doesn't have a lot left behind in the way of implied odds to pay you off if you spike a non-full house flush.

If you have not much in the way of a read, then pushing is probably fine since the wider range is probably more correct without a read than the narrow range.

[bkar824]

Good post Albert.

I usually play these situations hyper aggressively in raised pots. Since it's unraised, and villain wants to 4-bet the flop, it becomes pretty obvious he's got 2 pair or better. If you call the 10.50 bet, you're getting appropriate pot odds to call to see the turn, but you're like to check fold the turn if you miss. It's unlikely he's going to fold. In this situation I would just flat call the 2 dollar raise OOP, and build the pot up once I hit.

[Keyser112]

really don't like your re - re raise on the flop. call and see a turn card.

[FairyTales]

Very nice explanation Albert, that the kind of post that makes me realize that i still have a lot to learn.

I really don't like the shove on the flop, at that moment what do you have? TP with an horrible kicker and a "possible" second best flush, i would just call, even if a heart came next i wouldn't be that happy to call an all in.

[AlexB182]

The problem is, when hero just calls the raise or the 4 bet on flop, he won't get a lot of value when a third flush card on turn hits, because every player who is not too bad, would be very afraid that hero could ve played his draw fast. So, hero's play is a little risky indeed, especially against a narrow range as Albert described, but gives him full value if he hits. Personally, I like taking a risk like hero did in this hand evey now and then...