fold AA to scary board against push? (not interested in PF)

[lanerunner]

The problem is you're not interested in PF.

[Fiksdal]

Hold on OP I'm writing an essay about my analysis on your preflop play right now... just a little while more.... will post tomorrow.......

[jfletcher]

You guys are right. When I have AA, I definitely want to win the 600 chips in the pot right there. I certainly don't want a call with a hand like AA.

Anyway, I'm still all ears if anyone wants to comment on the question I asked.

[kuro]

Villain's really tight so his preflop range is like TT+,AK,AQ. He's got a set or like queens with a flush/straight draw on the turn. I think folding the turn is ok.

Preflop is a mess like everyone stated. Rather than get pissy about the comments, you're a lot better off reconsidering why preflop is bad. When you're up against a tight utg raiser, you don't have to be deceptive when you have Aces. His range is tight enough that many of his holding get all-in with you pre-flop. Who cares if the bottom of his range folds pre-flop, because the bottom of his range isn't putting in more money on subsequent streets unless it flops huge.

[jfletcher]

I don't mean to be pissy. It's not that I don't think there is a legitimate debate to be made about preflop. It's just that no one seems to want to answer the question I've asked.

If you into a hardware store and say: "Tell me how to fix my gas stove, you don't want to hear the salesperson say: 'You should just buy an electric next time.'" That doesn't help.

[SkyyCaptain]

Sorry, but you've screwed the pooch post flop:

With a minraise you're not telling much. You're saying, I'm a poor player who really wants you to fold RIGHT NOW. It doesn't matter that you'd rather him call and the min bet is an enticement. Every sense he has is telling him he can take this pot from you if the board comes friendly. It did, and he did.

You can't get a read off of him BECAUSE of this play, he's going to represent the best hand available. I bed he'd have pushed if an A or K landed (and here you'd have no problem calling because your analysis says he has AK in this situation which you have beat). Here he's got a flush draw that landed. THIS is why you have to play the aces stronger 99% of the time. With the big raise preflop you're saying "My hand is better than yours and I"m confident in that" on the flop you shove in, not giving him an opportunity to argue. At this point he has to fold because unless he's made a set, or a split pair, he knows he's beaten. If he calls he's made a poor decision (whether or not he gets lucky) and you've made a good one.

In the future, especially against weak players, DO NOT TRAP with aces. You trap when you're not worried about draws, and when you're confident he'll bet for you. Since everythings folded to him.

Lets do the best we can on hand analysis. He's opened UTG with a 3x raise. If he's a competent player, This means Aces, Kings, Queens, (probably all down to T's or 9's) and AK, AQ, at worst AJ. ALL of these will more than likely call a bigger raise preflop(sorry but I MUST bug you about this the AQ may lay it down, but the AK will call to the flop for sure). Here, the 10's, and Jacks are beating you. The Shove in on the Turn could indicate Kings. About a little more than half of these hands CAN'T be flushes.
J's K's, T's and AQ are beating you. AK suited? Can't happen, AQ suited has you beat either way. Ergo, NOT a flush.

If he's got the PP's that beat you you could be in trouble. And they're all possible holdings. The hands you beat right now, are AK(which may have a flush draw which would explain his confident shove) AQ, Here you're beat and not getting any better. JJ,TT,KK are all 2 outs. QQ has picked up (it thinks) 10/17 outs against you even if you've got the K or AA. In truth QQ has 8/15 outs (Depending on the diamond).

Okay, so In a lot of these cases YOU'RE TOAST, and the only hand you're in good shape against is AK, which is not a massive number of his possible hands because you're holding AA and one king is down.

You should have pushed the flop HARD because here only TT,JJ were beating you and AQd was the only strong draw. If he has TT/JJ on this flop, c'est la vie but if he doesn't he's letting you drag this one down for fear you've got aces or a set.

On this turn? I'm sorry to say that You're beat. If you're not, then its okay because a lot of his hands are good draws to beat you. Get rid of it, if you're not beat, then the reason for his (successful) bluff is your weak PF raise, and your less than adequate flop push.


Even if he's got a weaker hand like KQ (prbably suited) he's got 6 outs against you.

If he's as tight as you say Preflop then you probably aren't looking at anything weaker than this and you can be confident that when you're winning you're still only 80% to the river, and when you're losing you're losing hard. Toss it and in the future, play this harder and faster.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm glad that everyone here is smart enough to have a light bulb go off when they see the phrase "minraise." It's too bad that no one here is capable of interpreting a hand beyond one word and actually answering the question that was asked.

[/ QUOTE ]It is possible that your play, despite the word used to describe it, was not good. It is also possible that you compounded it by not playing well on the flop. In that case, after having played two streets badly, there isn't much to say about the turn. Do you have any idea where you are? I sure don't. I just know you have a big pair, you could be ahead, and the pot is big. So I suggest you stick it in and then celebrate when you pick off an overplayed hand/get ticked that you let a hand draw out on you.

[ QUOTE ]
I was really hoping that with all the good players here that someone could help interpret villain's moves on three different streets and help me come up with a range of holdings for him that would tell me what the right decision was on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]The issue here is that you shouldn't be playing 3 streets of poker here. As played all you can do is call and pray that your earlier poor choices didn't cost you the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe that's too complicated for some of you guys. I think everytime I get a premium hand preflop I'm just going to push. That's a good, simple, knee-jerk strategy that will help you avoid having to read a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]We are not playing deep enough here for some mind-blowing, hand reading exercise. The best you can do is assign some ranges and play the best you can against them. You did not do this on the first two streets so there's not much to say about the turn.

[woohoo88]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mean to be pissy. It's not that I don't think there is a legitimate debate to be made about preflop. It's just that no one seems to want to answer the question I've asked.

If you into a hardware store and say: "Tell me how to fix my gas stove, you don't want to hear the salesperson say: 'You should just buy an electric next time.'" That doesn't help.

[/ QUOTE ]

This analogy sucks. Change it to something like: You walk into a hardware store having just bought a crappy gas stove and ask them how to fix it when you could have bought a brand new working stove for the same price. The salesperson laughs at you and points out that he wouldn't know because he's never dealt in crappy gas stoves.


People aren't giving you good answers because people never get themselves into this situation.

To just sluff off the advice given here is akin to burning money. I can assure you that doing so is -ev.

[SkyyCaptain]

[ QUOTE ]

This analogy sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

No need to be mean. I post things where nobody wants to answer my question and it pisses me off.

In addition, its been addressed enough times that if he doesn't absorb the advice on PF then its really not your fault.

I posted a (2nd) response to his question, and I feel that it does a good job at answering the question.

Insults are for flame wars on less useful forums.

[jfletcher]

[ QUOTE ]
People aren't giving you good answers because people never get themselves into this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Never? I find that hard to believe.

Isn't the point with AA preflop to get as much money into the pot as possible against exactly one opponent? Isn't that what you want? If the goal is only to win immediately when you have AA, then you'd just auto-push every time you saw it.

You can make a distinction between raising to 500 or raising to 800 or 900 here, but I don't think that really changes much. The bigger the pot gets in relation to my stack, the less I'm going to be able to get away. (What about the phrase "Don't go broke with a one-pair hand?")

Anyway, on the turn I had discounted a set of Ks, because he didn't reraise me preflop. I also determined a made flush or straight was unlikely because he would have check-raised me there. (He's got to think I'm gonna bet the K if I have AA, KK or AK.)

So he's probably got a pair and a million outs, but there's only one card to come and I'm still getting 2 to 1. Also, if I fold I'm down to 2300 chips with blinds at 100-200 and coming up in a couple hands.

Thoughts on that turn analysis?