Sugar Bowl Thoughts

[jackstraw115]

I've decided to put 2 units on L.S.U (got em at -8) and one unit on the under 56. Reasoning for the under is L.S.U's swarming quick defense(don't think Dame has saw anything as good)I think Notre Dame is going to get out of the gates slow like they usually do and they wont be able to design an amazing comeback like they did against MSU or UCLA--L.S.U's d is just that good. L.S.U lost to Flordia, based on 5 turnovers coughed up by L.S.U--which is how L.S.U can and might lose. I think one game that might resemble this one is the Notre Dame 20 vs UCLA 17(Bruin's d is good, but not L.S.U good).If Dame puts more than 20 on the board they will have played great. I can see something like 28-17 L.S.U. The last factor, which suprisingly hasn't got much coverage is that they are playing in New Orleans...I don't care what anyone says..the energy that will be focused on L.S.U in that Dome after everything that happened there--Sometimes games are more then just the game. One way or the other, I'm hoping for a great game

[MCS]

Since I keep posting my bets in all the bowl game threads, I just want to go on record as saying I have

Notre Dame +10 (-107)

This seems to be the first major bowl bet where I have gone against the 2+2 consensus (USC, BSU, Louisville). Perhaps I am just a total square when it comes to this year's Irish team, though I did make one of my few multi-unit plays of the year against them, so maybe not. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[KreellKeiser]

I've got Irish +10

For the record, I havent lost yet on bowls this year. Only made 4 other bets, but they all worked:
BSU +7.5
BSU ML +250
USC +1
Nevada vs. Miami UNDER 42

Here's hoping I go 5 for 5...

[CarlSpackler]

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ND has a big coaching edge here.

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I agree that HC Weiss >>> HC Miles.

But LSU has 2 of the most wanted and respected coordinators in cfb, with OC Jimbo Fisher and DC Bo Pellini. Quite frankly, I don't see coaching being a decided advantage for either team.

LSU's defensive front is a nightmare matchup for the Irish, ala USC and michigan. I don't see any way ND is going to be able to establish a running attack tonight. Meanwhile, LSU has way too much speed on offense for the Irish defense to handle. ND is going to need at least a +2/+3 turnover ratio to have any chance in this game. I've got the line at LSU -11.

[Bill C]

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Irish always get ton of money on them. This game is odd in that the large favorite won't be the public's favorite to put money on. Notre Dame is traditionally a great underdog team. However, SC pounded the Irish in their one underdog setting this year. ND was crushed by both SC and Michigan, while Penn St was crushed by the Irish. It's really a question of whether LSU plays upto 80% or better of their potential. LSU can destroy the Irish since they have both the defense and offense. However, they are poorly coached and manage to pull dumb things from nowhere every third game. ND has a big coaching edge here. On paper, this is a two TD+ win for LSU. But, the game is played on the field and all the intangibles point the Irish way.

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Actually I think Charlie Weis is severely over-rated, and Les Miles is OK. And I feel like LSU has a big talent edge.
So as far as I'm concerned, one might not want to bet on LSU, but I sure wouldn't be betting against them here.

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the contest to the strong. But if you're gonna bet, that's the way to bet 'em." -- Anon [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[domer2]

Line dropped because of the poor performance of the SEC thus far, and the 2 point movement was specifically related to Tennessee's 20-10 loss to Penn State.

That being said, the strongest play in the game is LSU 1H -200.

[Bill C]

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ND has a big coaching edge here.

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I thought of that post when fatboy got his fake punt stuffed, in his own territory in the first quarter. Some edge. All Les Miles did was coach the best team to a smashing victory.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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This seems to be the first major bowl bet where I have gone against the 2+2 consensus (USC, BSU, Louisville). Perhaps I am just a total square when it comes to this year's Irish team, though I did make one of my few multi-unit plays of the year against them, so maybe not. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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jeez...the collective 2p2 wisdom is doing quite well on these bowl games. I just wish I agreed more often.