6/12 Live: I flop the wheel from the BB

[mntndrew]

Scenarios when raising:
1. you're best, both call: +3BB
2. you're best, EP folds, MP calls: +1BB
3. MP has boat and caps: -3BB (no way you can fold)

Scenarios when calling:
1. you're ahead, EP calls: +1BB
2. you're ahead, EP folds: 0BB
3. you're behind: -1BB

I would go with these assumptions:
1. I'm only concerned about MP, EP's just dead money.
2. You are ahead, like, 90% of the time here. That is a super safe turn board for sets and two pairs, and I'd expect to hear from those hands there.

Let's play with some numbers then.

Let's say EP always calls one bet, the best case scenario, and quite likely. EV of calling is +0.8BB.

I'd guess EP calls your raise with an ace or a jack most of the time but can probably get away from a 5, 3 or medium pair. I'd put him around 75% to call your raise. EV of raising is:

.9*(.75*3 + .25*1) -.1*3 = +1.95BB.

Bringing down the probability EP calls two cold to 50%, since you said you thought he might not:

.9*(.5*3 + .5*1) - .1*3 = +1.5BB.

Assuming EP calls two 50% of the time, you need to bring down your probability of being ahead to around 75% before going for the overcall becomes the better play.

I also haven't included what I believe is a non-zero possibility that this hand will get capped when you're ahead. Maybe this is cancelled out by not including the chance that you're behind and he chickens out and calls.

My initial instinct here was actually to go for the overcall, but if you think it's likely that EP is bad enough to feed the pot, I think you need to raise. I'm expecting to see an ace from EP, and although your physical tell from MP might not quite match up, it looks like he has the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
MP slow rolled a J. I said "you're gonna need more than that", to which he responded by opening his 9. I collect 12 dollars too little

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha! Just as I thought. Next time you say, "I raise again, give me de monies!"

[jesse8888]

[ QUOTE ]

Let's play with some numbers then.

Let's say EP always calls one bet, the best case scenario, and quite likely. EV of calling is +0.8BB.

I'd guess EP calls your raise with an ace or a jack most of the time but can probably get away from a 5, 3 or medium pair. I'd put him around 75% to call your raise. EV of raising is:

.9*(.75*3 + .25*1) -.1*3 = +1.95BB.

Bringing down the probability EP calls two cold to 50%, since you said you thought he might not:

.9*(.5*3 + .5*1) - .1*3 = +1.5BB.

Assuming EP calls two 50% of the time, you need to bring down your probability of being ahead to around 75% before going for the overcall becomes the better play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps I am retarded. Can you explain how you came up with these numbers? I don't think I understand what your baseline is in either case. Thanks for humoring me.

Edit: I got it now and the numbers make sense (the .1*3 was confusing me....i forgot there was an inherent assumption there that if I raise and he has a boat, MP caps).

Only problem I see here: The odds of EP calling 2 more cold, IMHO, are a lot more like 25% or even worse. Second of all, obviously the odds of him calling 1 bet are also less than 100%, but we can just leave that for now.

.9*(.25*3 + .75*1) - .1*3 = 1.05 bets

Even there the 3 bet shows a 3 dollar profit, again assuming the 100% call rate for 1 bet.

Thanks!

[mrcunningham]

MP has a J, and you hope it's not an A. Since it's statistically unlikely, I would reraise/call the river.
I'd do the same on the flow and turn, you can't let it check through.

[mrcunningham]

1. Given that you will likely have been the most aggressive player on the table, at least most nights, anyone with an A or a J is going to call you down. They won't notice that you're tight, but they will notice that you bet and raise more than themselves.
2. I agree with you.
3. I agree, but the chances he has a non ace kicker are much higher than otherwise.