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  #81  
Old 12-01-2007, 03:39 AM
lastchance lastchance is offline
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Default Re: Here\'s The Situation

What happens if you're Jon Gruden and win due to going for it?
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  #82  
Old 12-01-2007, 06:12 AM
Max Raker Max Raker is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[ QUOTE ]

The first question should be 'what is wrong with the model?'
Instead, the proponent just questioned 'what is wrong with NFL coaches?'


[/ QUOTE ]

So you think that coaches intuitively understand how going for 2 down by 8 will change the success frequency when adopted on a large scale so they don't bother with it?
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  #83  
Old 12-01-2007, 06:44 AM
EWS87 EWS87 is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

lets just say for now that sklanksy is right

it is still a highly -EV decision for the coach

the very first time the team fails to convert the 2-point conversion, and winds up having the ball in field goal range and loses by 4...the public and media outcry of people that could never understand the math would result in the coach eventually losing his job

coaches coach to make money not to win games
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  #84  
Old 12-01-2007, 08:08 AM
Victor Victor is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

look, coaches losing their job for these publicly regarded "risks" is absurdly overblown.

have you guys watched any bengals games this year? marvin lewis is completely secure in his job and he routinely blows obv situations. going for 2 up by 4 with 2.5min left.

calling to rather than challenging an obv fumble late in the browns game. note, he realized the mistake and still tried to challenge right after calling his last to. umm, if you felt the play questionable, and wanted to call to anyway, why not uhhh challenge?

calling to on 4th and 1 from the 2 and then sending the fg team out. ummm, why not take the penalty, save a to and still kick the gimme?

look at les miles. he was calling timeouts leaving a ton of time on the clock giving ark a chance to drive for the winning fg. dude is coveted for one of the best college jobs in the nation, and im sure lsu fans will mourn his loss.

agasint pittsburgh, crennel called to then reviewed a play, which he lost, essentially losing 2 timeouts late in the game when the browns were driving for a fg. dawson then missed a 47 yarder (tough kick in pitt.) ya think an extra to gets them closer often enough?

this is off the top of my head but such mistakes are common and there is little to no public mention of them let alone outcry.

but wait, what happened to that guy who went for 2 where a tie would have won the title? was he fired? did his fan base turn? absolutely not, he became a friggin senator.
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  #85  
Old 12-01-2007, 08:39 AM
EWS87 EWS87 is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

i dont think marvin lewis is as secure in his job as you do
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  #86  
Old 12-01-2007, 09:11 AM
Victor Victor is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

sorry but you dont know how the bengals franchise operates.

dave shula was 19-52
coslet 21-39
lebeau 12-23

despite horrendous results these guys coached for quite a few seasons. expect at least 2 more seasons of lewis and maybe more the seats keep getting filled.
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  #87  
Old 12-01-2007, 09:21 AM
VarlosZ VarlosZ is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

I see your point, but that's different. It's one thing to make relatively minor (and obvious) mistakes, and thus earn a reputation as, say, a poor clock manager. The fans hate it and the GM is no doubt annoyed, but I think people in football realize that there's a lot happening on the sidelines and not much time to make these decisions, so errors are to some degree unavoidable.

OTOH, purposely and repeatedly making tactical decisions that cut so strongly against the established orthodoxy will get a coach a ton of negative attention. There isn't enough of an EV boost to overcome the confirmation bias that will cause every journalist, pundit, and fan to pick out the instances in which a novel strategy failed, just as they expected it to. And that's assuming that the strategies are yielding their true EV; god forbid variance strikes and the strategies backfire for a season.

That said, I imagine that some day a particularly enlightened and/or supportive front office will allow an experiment with some of these unorthodox tactics. In particular, I'd like to see a team eschew a majority of its punts; those would be fun games to watch.
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  #88  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:18 PM
ProfessorBen ProfessorBen is offline
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Default Re: Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

Brendan: LOL HUDGE LEVEL.
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