2-7 Hand 200-400 Bellagio Mixed Games

[karpov]

Solid Player raised in MP, Jordan extremely solid as well 3 bets, I 4 bets in the B with 87532, MP calls, Jordan 5 Bets.
MP draw 1, he has 7632 or 7432 but drawing to a 7. Jordan draw 1, he has for sure 7432. Do you pat or break the 8? What is the percentage that both will miss after 3 draws?

[*TT*]

1) What makes you so sure that Jordan has 2347? Isnt 2345 and 2457 also within that range?

2) MP is the best case scenario, he has 8 outs, but in reality its rather obvious his outs are tainted. We can assume he has around 4-6 at best and 3 outs to make a worse 8 which will pay you off.

Heads up with the dead cards we know about 2347 is a slight favorite to win going into the draw heads up vs you, he has 6 outs to make a 7 and 3 outs to make a better 8. If the hands were turned over I'd call the first draw and re-evaluate even though your a small dog. Once we know your hand is good after the first draw then I play poker because your a small favorite.

HOWEVER once you add int he other opponent I really don't know how to answer your question since you have such precise ranges, usually ranges are wider than this.

[InWithTheBest]

you gotta keep it for now but consider breaking later to a check raise. Im pretty sure Jordan will never check raise you with worse hand on 1st or 2nd draw, i assume if other player is solid he will either make his 7 or keep drawing. This is closer if you had an 87652 or if jordan 5 bet you while he was in position. The fact that you are in position and are unlikely to be bluffed off your hand makes it much easier to keep it.

[DeathDonkey]

As an aside, man I remember playing 2-7 with Jordan like two years ago at the 30/60ish level and he was a tiltmonkey with some skill. In Vegas over the summer I see him playing big black chip and any gossip I could get basically said "he ran it up" and now he's regarded as extremely solid (which I have no reason to doubt). I have no point here other than that I happen to remember the guy and can see his whole evolution to high stakes mixed game monster. Catching a good run probably helped his confidence a ton which makes him less tilty as well, either that or he stopped being tilty long ago and I just didn't see him for awhile.

I would basically play this hand pat and break if I got raised somewhere.

-DeathDonkey

[palman]

Jordan's not a tiltmonkey, although he may have been 2 years ago. Also, I think everyone under the age of 40 who's played the mix game has tilted at one point or another, so it mighta been a rare occurance.

But yeah, in position I'm patting this and breaking to a c/r on any street. Fairly simple hand to play, IMO, but a nervewracking one nonetheless.