right line of thinking here???

THE OUTLAW · #1 10-04-2007, 05:15 AM

A couple of weeks ago I was playing in a $1-$2 NL game at a casino close to my house. This game usually only gets going on the weekends (super-small poker room) but when it does the chips are basically handed to me.

A player whom I had played with once before at another casino sat in the game and immediately starting tearing the table up with his reckless style. After maybe an hour his $200 buy-in was at $1200+. From what I knew about this player he was OK but extremely over-confident. In the previous session we had played together he had $700 in front of him when I came to the table. He went up and down, did some dumb things, tilted, and eventually lost everything.

Our game started to get short and I figured that it was very likely that it might end up just the two of us playing HU. A thought occured to me as we got closer and closer to HU play...

Let's say we are evenly matched skillwise. I had about $200 in front of me which is what i had bought in for. And which was all I was willing to lose. Assuming the game got HU with this goofball sitting with $1200 which he would be willing to play all of, does that mean I'm getting 6 to 1 on my money in an evenly matched freezout?

That seems too good to be true and maybe I'm missing something. Any thoughts?

pzhon · #2 10-04-2007, 05:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say we are evenly matched skillwise. I had about $200 in front of me which is what i had bought in for. And which was all I was willing to lose. Assuming the game got HU with this goofball sitting with $1200 which he would be willing to play all of, does that mean I'm getting 6 to 1 on my money in an evenly matched freezout?

[/ QUOTE ]
If your skills are equally matched, then you should expect to win about 1/7 of the time, so you don't get an advantage this way.

JavaNut · #3 10-04-2007, 07:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If your skills are equally matched, then you should expect to win about 1/7 of the time, so you don't get an advantage this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

So why play close to even EV to prolong the evening when you can go home, put your winnings in the roll and relax?

When there apparently are many fish to be gutted around, just not right now, why play a non-fish to get his $200 when you can pocket the $1,000 you got of the easy fish?

Staying and playing isn't that against all table selection advice? When the table changes from highly profitable to even money or worse, you should always leave.

Andynan · #4 10-04-2007, 09:55 AM

he needs to win 1 all in only, you need around 3 double ups to take him out. Assuming evenly matched, its 50% chance that you will double up or go broke each time. Roughly 1 in 8 times you will accomplish to win 3 in a row undefeated.

Same happens on a tournament final HU, if you have 1 million chips vs 10 million of your opponent, you are not 50% to win, even if you are exactly as good/bad as him.

Stacksize does matter

GeeBeeQED · #5 10-04-2007, 03:04 PM

I'd ask the other player if he thought he could play with 1200 chips on the table would he mind if I chipped up? He should be inferior from your first description of him but even a large skill gap in your favor I'd say your esentially going to donate to him unless he's real soft and scared and he does not sound that way. Chip up, he chip down or go home.

There is some value also in leaving and letting the book a win, it will afirm to him how "good" he is and you'll get another chance to take him down.

Dave

THE OUTLAW · #6 10-06-2007, 05:45 AM

"why play a non-fish to get his $200 when you can pocket the $1,000 you got of the easy fish?"

i dont understand. he's the one with the $1000+ I'm the one with $200

GeeBeeQED · #7 10-06-2007, 09:45 AM

You have too much grinding to do, or if you meat him legitimately, you have to do it 3 times in a row to get him. Understand the best player in the world against a middling donk is no 3:1 to win. Nobody 3 or even 2x better anybody else.

Dave

jstill · #8 10-06-2007, 11:54 AM

ur way off on everything

also saying u guys are evenly skilled and then calling him a goofball is totally inconsistent (unless ur a goofball as well in which case wheres this edge thats too good to be true), and assuming ur getting 7:1 in a freezeout and not taking into consideration how the chip disadvantage harms ur chances of winning the freezeout is pretty naive dont u think... if ur both as likely to win with even stacks him having more chips probably outweighs the pay off you get when u felt him, not accounting for that factor at all is just plain idiotic, it definitely doesn't "help" ur edge/ EV.