I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 NL

[The Student]

I have stats on the villian but don't really remember playing with him before (they're probably idleminer stats). The villian is 12/7/3.5 and raises CBs 20% of the time. I have trouble giving him credit for the flush or a Q when he C/Rs the turn, so the river doesn't make me think his hand has improved. How often is he bluffing here with a lone spade or straight draw? I'm getting $81:$31 pot odds, so as long as I'm beating him 30% of the time or so, it's a good call.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($104.35)
MP2 ($127.85)
MP3 ($114.25)
Hero ($180.85)
Button ($106.35)
SB ($99)
BB ($87.50)
UTG ($285.45)
UTG+1 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $3, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($8) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($8) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $21</font>, Hero calls $16.

River: ($50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $31</font>, Hero ???

Should I call here? Am I totally off to think this might be a bluff more than 30% of the time?

ts-